The popular myth is that it’s the opening game of any season in which the All Blacks are at their most vulnerable – that if any visiting team is going to make history in New Zealand they need to strike early.
But statistically, in the last 12 years, it’s the second test that the All Blacks have shown themselves to be most vulnerable.
Ireland showed that in 2022, when they were well beaten in the first test and then bounced back to win easily in Dunedin and go on to win the series.
The British and Irish Lions did much the same thing in 2017 – losing game one, and then winning game two and drawing the third, while in 2012 the All Blacks needed a last-minute drop goal by Dan Carter to salvage the second test, and in 2014 England lost by just one point in the second test.
England took their shot at the King in Dunedin and didn’t kill him, but it’s a fallacy to imagine, even on the hallowed turf of Eden Park, that they won’t get another clean of line sight on the All Blacks this Saturday and a second chance to finish the job.
There is some truth to the notion that now they have a test match behind them, the All Blacks should be more accurate in their execution and better attuned to the pace, physicality, intensity and strategic patterns of test rugby.
What 80 minutes of brutal rugby in Dunedin did was transition the All Blacks players out of their Super Rugby Pacific mindsets and habits and condition them to the realities of test football, where mistakes are harshly punished, space is a treasured commodity and set piece, defence and contestable kicking are all core elements rather than optional extras.
But England exposed more than inevitable first-night nerves, early-season rust and Super Rugby habits – they identified structural and system weaknesses in the All Blacks, genuine fault lines that will need to be patched up or even reconstructed.
And this is why this test will shine a more penetrative light on Scott Robertson and his coaching team, because it is their moment to show that, like their players, they can transition from orchestrating Super campaigns to delivering test victories week-to-week.
This isn’t campaign rugby where a team can build and develop towards peaking at the tail end of the season – it’s one-off stuff where the team must peak for every test and is a long way removed from the challenges posed by Super Rugby.
Jason Ryan excepted, Robertson and the rest of his coaching team are new to the international arena and their experience in Super Rugby never, or certainly rarely, required them to play consecutive games against the same opposition.
And backing up against the same team – something the All Blacks will do several times this year with consecutive tests against England, Argentina, South Africa and Australia – is a nuanced art. It places pressure on coaching teams to effectively analyse what they got right and wrong the previous week, pre-empt what the opposition may do differently and refine or even totally revamp their strategic approach.
International head coaches enjoy million-dollar salaries for this very reason – to preside as strategic and cultural masterminds who can problem-solve week-to-week, redirect their troops and outsmart the other coaching team, who are trying to do the same thing.
Despite winning last week, there should be no illusions within the current regime that they have a significant number of problems for which they need to find solutions.
The All Blacks’ lineout was under threat, they didn’t take full advantage of their scrum ascendancy, they didn’t get the right balance in their kick-run-pass, and they struggled to make the right decisions in the face of England’s blitz defence.
In terms of coming up with a fix, the most pressing questions are around what scale of adjustments they are prepared to make to their tactical blueprint, and how many personnel changes they feel are required to execute what they want.
Probably their only real option at lineout is to throw to the front more often, a shift that will increase the likelihood of the All Blacks mauling more and borrowing from the Blues’ plan of smashing up the middle of the park to force England’s defence to retreat and curb its speed on the advance.
Samipeni Finau may pay a price for an ineffective effort in Dunedin and be replaced by Luke Jacobson at blindside; Finlay Christie will come in for the injured TJ Perenara at halfback and every indication has been given that Beauden Barrett will start at fullback to bring some playmaking craft, test experience and calm decision-making to the back field.
But the art of coaching international teams isn’t confined to knowing what strategic and personnel changes to make.
There’s the question of attitude, desire and mindset and whether the team can stop feeling relieved to have won last week and hungry to do it again this week.
The Razor era began in Dunedin, but really, it begins on Saturday night at Eden Park.
