Gregor Paul and Paul Lewis have differing opinions on the bench strategy of the All Blacks which has been the focus of much recent debate.
There's only one thing wrong with the All Blacks "impact player" strategy: it's not working so well.
The statistics tell an interesting story. This year, in four test matches against major opposition (France twice, Australia and South Africa) the All Blacks have three times trailed at halftime.
They won
one test after trailing (against Australia, where the bench was acknowledged by most judges as the crucial factor) but lost the other two.
Last year, the All Blacks made a similar habit. From September, against the Wallabies (twice) and on the end of year tour of the UK and Ireland, the All Blacks trailed at halftime in four of those matches - against Australia and once each against Munster and Wales.
But here's the thing. They won all four in the end. That hasn't happened this year, although this morning's match could change things.
To take the statistical focus a bit further, over that same period from September 2008-this morning, the All Blacks played 12 matches (11 tests plus Munster). They trailed at halftime in seven. Of the other five, the opposition included Italy, Scotland and Ireland.
That would seem to point to the fact that the All Blacks are poor starters against better sides - a contention borne out by their form so far this year.
But, over the past two seasons, the All Blacks have not dropped a test match when they led at halftime. Even against serious opposition, the pattern has been: lead at halftime, win the match.
Here are some specific reasons for giving up on the "bench strategy". They are underpinned by the general philosophy that maybe the All Blacks should not base their selection on who is best 'off the bench' but who is more likely to help build them a lead.
Andrew Hore: His throwing confidence seems to have gone. He looks unsure and his throwing has helped make the lineout splutter - and opponents gain confidence.
Keven Mealamu has been a much more telling influence around the field when he has started. Hore has not yet re-captured his form.
Neemia Tialata: Typically replaced after 50m-60m of a test. So far this season, the All Black scrum has been solid without dominating. When Owen Franks came on last week, the All Black scrum improved, as admitted by forwards coach Steve Hansen. Franks started this morning and the difference will be interesting to analyse.
Kieran Read: This guy has a motor every bit as perpetual motion as Richie McCaw's. Rodney So'oialo hasn't yet recaptured his form which, when right, is also based on a high work rate, excellent foraging at the breakdown and non-stop tackling. At the moment, surely he is the better impact player for late in a match and Read should be used to stretch the opposition.
Piri Weepu: Even though his gaffe last week cost the match, it should be remembered the All Blacks' woeful first half, misfiring lineout and ordinary scrummage meant the Boks should have been out of sight (if they'd kicked their goals) before Weepu even got on the field. The decision to start Brendon Leonard - the man was clearly in need of rugby before being chucked in against the world champions - ahead of Weepu or Jimmy Cowan was the worst selection boo-boo for some time.
Weepu has looked strong and decisive. And he kicks goals if Stephen Donald should have a kicking 'mare ... Weepu's more aggressive game would surely pave the way for Cowan, one of the finest defensive halfbacks in the world, or Leonard's sniping runs once he has had more rugby.
This is all predicated upon the fact that it is surely better to lead 14-3 at halftime than it is to trail 14-3.
No one is suggesting that the 'bench strategy' is solely responsible for all the All Blacks' problems - there were too many issues in execution, lineouts, scrum, re-starts and kicking, among others, to say that.
But just maybe, a different emphasis might help get them winning more.
