Quinn Tupaea and Peter Lakai’s contestable selections for the rematch with Ireland in Chicago signal the All Blacks are prepared to be swayed by form.
Beauden Barrett, Caleb Clarke and Ethan de Groot’s respective returns from injury strengthen the All Blacks’ ambition to preserve their quest for a Grand Slam, but it’s Tupaea and Lakai who command most attention this week.
Injury setbacks aside, the vast majority of Scott Robertson’s first-choice All Blacks side is relatively settled.
Tupaea forced his way into the midfield, in the unfamiliar centre role, after impressing with his physical presence off the bench during the Rugby Championship.
Two tries against the Wallabies in Perth stole headlines in a man of the match performance that has seen Tupaea maintain his place ahead of Billy Proctor, who started seven previous tests this year.
Tupaea’s direct ball carrying against the Wallabies was notable for the consistent punch it provided, but also in freeing up Jordie Barrett to play a more traditional second five-eighth role that suits his all-round natural strengths.
In his second test start at centre, though, Tupaea is sure to be challenged defensively by Ireland.
While Tupaea fully deserves another crack at claiming the No 13 jersey, Leicester Fainga’anuku is lurking on the All Blacks bench.
After marking his return to the test arena following a two-year absence in France, it’s a matter of time before Fainga’anuku gets a starting crack at centre.
Lakai’s retention for his second test start at No 8 speaks to the All Blacks loose forward depth.
The versatile 22-year-old, who is equally comfortable at openside flanker, has long been marked as the future, but an injury setback this year forced him to be patient until he was promoted over Hurricanes team-mate Du’Plessis Kirifi for a cameo off the bench in the All Blacks success against the Wallabies at Eden Park.
The following week Lakai was a surprise inclusion to start at No 8 in Perth, pushing 23-year-old talent Wallace Sititi, last year’s World Rugby breakthrough player of the year, to the bench.
Sititi and Lakai are the future of the All Blacks loose forwards but, for now, they are contesting the same role.
While Sititi is yet to recapture the heights he hit last year, Robertson has been impressed by Lakai’s work.
“He’s very good both sides of the ball. He plays straight with ball in hand, he defends well, he’s good on the ground and he’s a power athlete,” Robertson said. “He’s a good test footballer; we’re really pleased he took that opportunity for us last time.”
The message Robertson is sending by backing Tupaea and Lakai is that nothing is set in stone, and compelling form will be rewarded.
Of the three incumbents returning from injury, Clarke could prove most influential.
Ireland first five-eighth Jack Crowley and halfback Jamison Gibson-Park are expected to pepper the All Blacks back three.
After missing the Perth test with a recurrence of his ankle injury, Clarke, the All Blacks’ best aerial exponent, didn’t shy away from how pivotal this area will be in determining this weekend’s result.
“Watching Leicester in that last game in Perth inspired me to lift my game. I’m grateful to be back,” Clarke said.
“I love the aerial contest so much. I thank a lot of the boys from the NRL who taught me a lot of their skills when I went to the Rabbitohs. A few tips, a few drills, that I worked on last year and leading into this year. Hopefully they can kick a few on my side and we’ll see how we go,” Clarke said.
“That’s going to be a big part of this game, winning the aerial battle. You’ve seen this year how much it swings momentum in games. Forwards have their job and the back three have ours, so it’s going to be won and lost in that area.”
Ireland sprang a selection surprise by promoting Ulster centre Stuart McCloskey to start at second-five over Bundee Aki and stacking their bench to target the All Blacks’ final-quarter vulnerabilities.
With returning captain Caelan Doris, Aki and Iain Henderson on their bench, Ireland are clearly intent on matching the All Blacks reserve firepower that includes Sititi, Fainga’anuku, Damian McKenzie and Tamaiti Williams.
“It’s a strong Irish bench as well, with a lot of experience and some key players,” Robertson said. “The finishing side of the game is critical, so there’s some good combinations and guys that can cover different positions.
“Until 2016 the rivalry was one-sided, now it’s five for five in the last 10. It’s heated, it’s the occasion, it’s on the day, and it means a lot to us.”
All Blacks:
1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Fletcher Newell, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 5 Fabian Holland, 6 Simon Parker, 7 Ardie Savea, 8 Peter Lakai, 9 Cam Roigard, 10 Beauden Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 14 Leroy Carter, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 23 Damian McKenzie.
Ireland:
1. Andrew Porter, 2. Dan Sheehan (captain), 3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. James Ryan, 5. Tadhg Beirne, 6. Ryan Baird, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Jack Conan, 9. Jamison Gibson-Park, 10. Jack Crowley, 11. James Lowe, 12. Stuart McCloskey, 13. Garry Ringrose, 14. Tommy O’Brien, 15. Jamie Osborne. Reserves: 16. Ronan Kelleher, 17. Paddy McCarthy, 18. Finlay Bealham, 19. Iain Henderson, 20. Caelan Doris, 21. Craig Casey, 22. Sam Prendergast, 23. Bundee Aki.
Liam Napier is a senior sports journalist and rugby correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.