The All Blacks reclaimed World Rugby’s No 1 spot last week when they beat Argentina, but their return to the summit says more about the imperfections of the ranking system than it does New Zealand’s true ability.
Fair play to the All Blacks, they are not the architects of the system and nor have they celebrated their return to the No 1 ranking – with head coach Scott Robertson seemingly unaware his team had leapfrogged South Africa when they defeated the Pumas in Cordoba.
It’s all been low-key, hush-hush and no big deal. Which is primarily because the All Blacks know their status as the best team in the world is arguably a false position – both in the sense of how they are tracking against their rivals and how they are playing compared with their potential.
This is not a team who look like the world’s best, and Robertson knows it. Their attack isn’t flowing, their work under the high ball is patchy and their capacity to stay mentally attuned for 80 minutes is unproven.
The All Blacks are certainly in the top echelon, which includes South Africa, France and Ireland (and maybe England), but they have not yet shown the consistency of performance or produced a long enough history of good results to say they are the best of that cohort.
The All Blacks know they owe their current standing to the mathematical quirks of the ranking system, which weights things in favour of the lower-ranked teams, as it is effectively an exchange-based set-up.
By losing to sixth-ranked Australia on the weekend, South Africa lost three ranking points – which were given to the Wallabies – while the All Blacks added 0.45 points to their total by beating seventh-ranked Argentina.
Because of the exchange mechanism, it is also easier to get to the summit than it is to stay there, which is why the All Blacks have been able to secure the No 1 spot without having produced a string of emphatic results.
Specifically, the All Blacks have been able to usurp South Africa without having beaten the Springboks since July 2023, and it is maybe this fact alone that has deterred Robertson from making any mention of the rankings.
No matter what the numbers say, the All Blacks can’t genuinely feel they are – or deserve to be seen as – the world’s best team unless and until they manage to secure at least one victory against the Springboks.
To retain their No 1 spot literally and in the court of public opinion, they also really need to win both tests against the South Africans next month – and push on to recapture the Rugby Championship.
Beating the Boks has become the real benchmark for the All Blacks – the only true measure of where they sit in the global pecking order.
Since Rassie Erasmus took over as South Africa’s head coach in 2018, the rivalry has intensified to the point where All Blacks analysts never feel comfortable making pronouncements about the team’s relative strengths and weaknesses until the ABs have been exposed to the unique pressures of playing the Springboks.
The All Blacks’ scrum looks good in 2025 – destructive and technically adept – but no one can be sure it’s as good as it looks until it has packed down for 80 minutes against South Africa.
The All Blacks’ lineout has been immaculate and defensively clever. But again, it’s one thing running faultlessly against the Pumas, another doing it against the Boks.
As for the driving maul? The All Blacks splintered the Pumas, but no one is getting carried away because destroying the Pumas in Cordoba can’t be extrapolated into believing the same level of destruction can be achieved against South Africa.
In the seven years Erasmus has been coach, the All Blacks have played South Africa 13 times, won five, drawn one and lost seven.
The Boks have also won back-to-back World Cups in that period, and the All Blacks would admit the statistics support the perception their old foe has been the better rugby innovator and more consistent performer.
The All Blacks have produced two memorably good performances in that time – the dramatic win at Ellis Park, in 2022, and the clinical demolition job at Mount Smart Stadium the following year – but for the most part, the story has been one in which the Springboks’ greater power, cohesion and simple gameplan has been better executed.
The Boks, by imploding at Ellis Park last week, showed a degree of vulnerability that has not been visible for years, but what’s also made them such an important gauge is that they have consistently reserved their best rugby for when they play the All Blacks.
There is a big difference between being No 1 as per the rankings and being No 1 as per the weight of public opinion.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.