THE FACTS
You win some. You lose some.
Two weeks ago, New Zealand Warriors fans were rejoicing as Leka Halasima scored a whirlwind try to claim a last-gasp win over the Newcastle Knights.
The roles were then flipped on the Warriors as the Redcliffe Dolphins went sideline-to-sideline to score a last-minute try and claim a 20-18 win, their first-ever in New Zealand.
The atmosphere was sucked out of Go Media Mt Smart Stadium in a way this diehard Warriors fan can rarely, if ever, recall.
It was a classic Warriors performance that had all the drama of a rom-com, the intensity of a thriller, with a horrific ending.
Like last week’s loss to the Gold Coast Titans, the defeat will have massive consequences for the Warriors’ hopes of securing a top-four finish, although a finals berth should still be secure.
The Melbourne Storm were the only top-four side to secure victory over the weekend, with the Canberra Raiders and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs also losing.
Here are five questions from the defeat.
Post-match, Warriors coach Andrew Webster confirmed it was his decision to turn down the penalty goal after Felise Kaufusi was sin-binned with six minutes remaining, and he stood by the call.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and plenty will question the decision that could have drained the clock and stretched the lead to four points.
Despite the outcome, it’s fair to say the call itself wasn’t the issue, the Warriors simply failed to execute.
Two poor last-tackle options and an overly conservative approach saw them lose momentum instead of pushing for the win.
They backed their defence, which has been the cornerstone of their success this season. This time, it didn’t hold.
Even if they had taken the two points, the Dolphins would likely have attempted a short restart and had a chance to regain possession and attack again.
It was just unfortunate timing. The Dolphins were handed a lifeline through a high-tackle penalty and chose to go for the win rather than level the scores – and it paid off, with Jamayne Isaako scoring the match-winner.
The Warriors were running on fumes in that final set. Halasima was down in back play with cramp and several players were visibly struggling to move.
The Warriors have successfully closed out tight contests throughout the season, and if faced with the same situation again, Webster would likely make the same call. He’d just hope the execution matched the intent.
This time next week, the Warriors could find themselves outside the NRL’s top four for the first time since round six, unless they can pull off a major upset against the Bulldogs, who will be eager to bounce back after a shock loss to the Wests Tigers.
As it stands, the Penrith Panthers are just one point behind the Warriors, following their controversial win over the Titans. The Brisbane Broncos and the Cronulla Sharks, who still have a bye to come, sit a further point back and are closing in fast.
The Panthers and Sharks both have favourable match-ups this week against the Knights and the St George Illawarra Dragons respectively. The Broncos, however, face the toughest test of the round: an away clash against the Storm in Melbourne, where they haven’t won since 2016.
In a worst-case scenario, the Warriors could drop as low as seventh by Monday, a situation that would have seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago.
Finishing inside the top four is massive in the NRL. No side have ever won the competition after finishing below fourth, while it also gives you a second life if you lose in the first round of the finals.
With the way the table is shaping up, it’s fair to say the Raiders, Storm and Bulldogs look locked in for top-three finishes, leaving five teams in a fierce race for the final spot in the top four.
The good news for the Warriors is that despite their recent slump, they have one of the more favourable runs home, but they must act quickly to turn their fortunes around now before it gets even worse.
Let’s not get carried away after one performance, but there were promising signs from Dallin Watene-Zelezniak.
The 29-year-old has endured a difficult season, struggling with form and confidence, but against the Dolphins, he looked far more assured. He scored two tries, was heavily involved throughout and showed the kind of energy that fans know he’s capable of producing.
Arguably more important than the tries was a critical defensive play with 15 minutes remaining, an intercept that likely prevented a Dolphins try and swung momentum back in the Warriors’ favour.
That said, it wasn’t a flawless display. Watene-Zelezniak made a questionable decision to kick a dropped Dolphins pass into touch rather than dive on it and conceded the high-tackle penalty that ultimately led to the game-winning try.
The Warriors may have also benefited from Dolphins centre Herbie Farnworth leaving the field with injury, relieving some of the pressure on the right edge. Still, considering how vulnerable that side has been in recent weeks and how much criticism Watene-Zelezniak has faced, it was undoubtedly a step forward.
If he can build on this performance, the Warriors’ right-edge defence and strike power could be noticeably strengthened heading into the final stretch of the season.
The short answer is yes. If you were to name the Warriors’ best 17, at least eight of them were unavailable against the Dolphins, including four of the club’s most influential players: Mitch Barnett, James Fisher-Harris, Luke Metcalf and Wayde Egan.
In total, over 750 games worth of NRL experience was missing.
That level of unavailability had a major impact, particularly in key positions. It forced the Warriors to field their New South Wales Cup spine of Taine Tuaupiki, Te Maire Martin, Tanah Boyd and Sam Healey.
Egan and Chanel Harris-Tavita are expected to return for this weekend’s clash with the Bulldogs, however, fresh injury concerns have surfaced.
Demitric Vaimauga was ruled out just before kickoff with a knee issue, while Jacob Laban was forced from the field after suffering a potentially serious injury. Post-match, Webster said Laban “felt something pop” in his knee after being caught in a dangerous tackle, an ominous sign that could signal a lengthy layoff.
As frustrating as the injury toll has been, it has offered a few silver linings. Young forwards such as Halasima and Vaimauga have earned valuable minutes and impressed in recent weeks, while Eddie Ieremia-Toeava made an eye-catching debut, showcasing physicality and energy on both sides of the ball.
Most of the cavalry should return in the coming weeks, but with the finals race heating up and the fight for a top-four berth intensifying, the next month will be crucial for the Warriors.
As we saw in the latest round of the NRL, anything is possible, but the Warriors’ hopes of toppling the Bulldogs will largely depend on who’s available come game day.
Despite losing four of their last six, this has all the makings of a classic Warriors performance, a gritty, backs-against-the-wall effort against a Bulldogs side reeling from arguably their worst defeat of the season.
Wayde Egan is set to return at hooker, which will bring much-needed composure around the ruck. The more intriguing selection question is what Webster does with Chanel Harris-Tavita, given Te Maire Martin’s decent efforts in the No 6 jersey.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, will have captain Stephen Crichton, who avoided getting charged after he was placed on report against the Tigers.
One of the most telling aspects of the Bulldogs’ loss to the Tigers was how easily they were outmuscled in wet, gritty conditions. The Warriors will likely take note, especially with Kurt Capewell back in his preferred position at second row, providing added toughness in the forward pack.
Expect Webster to stick with the backline reshuffle that worked well against the Dolphins, keeping Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in the centres and Tuaupiki at fullback, an adjustment that added both defensive stability and attacking spark.
It won’t be easy, but if the Warriors bring physicality, they’re more than capable of walking away with an upset and potentially saving their top-four hopes in the process.
Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.