COMMENT: Watch Martin Devlin's latest edititon of 'We Need to Talk' above
The Kiwis are not going to beat the Kangaroos.
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid hope is all I have. When was the last time the Kiwis, our national rugby league team, even played well?
And yes, this is a new era with new players and a new coach, new attitude blah blah...forgive me for saying we've heard it all before.
I'm not sure there is a national team that so consistently disappoints like the Kiwis do. How many times, and I'm talking over decades, have you fallen for the hype that always builds us up into genuine transtasman contenders?
Way too many to buy into this latest attempt. Can you even remember the last time we fronted and competed against the Kangaroos?
While you struggle to recall consider these historical stats: We have played Australia 147 times for just 35 total wins; we, the Kiwis, have played 369 tests in our competitive history for just 154 wins.
The numbers don't lie. And those numbers are sad.
The Kiwis, like the Silver Ferns and Black Caps, only ever beat Australia every now and again. We can convince ourselves, lie to ourselves, try to pretend it is actually a rivalry but the truth is, and as ugly as it might be to admit, we are their bunny.
The last time we did beat Australia was the Anzac test in Brisbane on May 14, 2015.
That was also the third time in a row we'd taken the Kangaroos, first time they'd lost three on the trot.
It's been three years, people, since we looked likely. Don't even ask about the in-between years because those stats are even more depressing.
Ok, you asked for it: Since that win we have played 14 tests for just four wins against all opponents.
Included in that dross was a draw against Scotland and defeats at last year's Rugby League World Cup to both Fiji and Tonga.
So when I say we aren't going to win tomorrow night, I'm not being a pessimist, just a realist.
Everything points to another easy Kangaroos win.
Yes, I have hope - but no expectation.