Formula One: What Kiwi Liam Lawson needs to do to secure 2025 seat

THREE KEY FACTS

• Liam Lawson has returned to the Formula One grid with Racing Bulls
• After a short break, the season resumes in Austin, Texas this weekend
• However, the Kiwi has just six Grands Prix, with no contract announced for 2025 and beyond

Alex Powell is an Online Sports Editor for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016, and previously worked for both Newshub and 1News.

OPINION

After a year of waiting, Liam Lawson’s time as a fulltime Formula One driver will finally begin in Austin this weekend.

However, despite a dramatic mid-season sacking of Australian favourite Daniel Ricciardo, Lawson is only locked in for six Grands Prix and three sprint races to end 2024 with Racing Bulls - the second team of the reigning world champions, Red Bull.

On paper, Lawson’s contract might seem short-term. But make no mistake, Red Bull have a plan for the Kiwi that extends far beyond these next six race weekends.

The biggest question, though, is just what that plan is for 2025?

While all signs pointed to Lawson being instilled for 2025 at Racing Bulls, the fact Red Bull have only given him until the end of this season indicates its senior driver pairing is far from set in stone.

Red Bull are no strangers to this. Ever since Max Verstappen debuted as a 17-year-old, and moved up from the junior team (formerly Toro Rosso, now Racing Bulls) in the same season proves they’re prepared to take risks with their drivers.

Lawson’s elevation to Racing Bulls comes with question marks hovering over Verstappen’s teammate, Sergio Perez. In equal machinery to Verstappen, Perez has 187 fewer points. That gap saw Perez under threat at the mid-season break, only for Red Bull to hold their nerve and back him to the end of the season.

Liam Lawson in the Racing Bulls garage at the Singapore Grand Prix. Photo / Getty Images

Perez re-signed with Red Bull earlier this year, and while that deal has been reported as a two-year extension, the reality is much different.

Perez’s actual contract is what’s known as a one-plus-one year deal - the first year is guaranteed, the second is for Red Bull to exercise if they want.

Should Perez continue to struggle, it’s not out of the question he’ll be sacked at the end of 2025, especially if Red Bull lose the constructor’s championship to McLaren.

At present, Red Bull’s points are more or less only coming from Verstappen alone. McLaren have two drivers - Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri – both scoring points at the front of the grid.

It’s for that reason that Lawson’s future is yet to be guaranteed. Red Bull are in all likelihood assessing how he goes in these last six Grands Prix, with the intention of moving him up into the senior ranks alongside Verstappen next year.

Taking that into account, Lawson’s main objective is clear. He has to be the second-best Red Bull driver, across its two teams. That means out-performing both Perez, and Racing Bulls teammate Yuki Tsunoda.

While on track it will be hard to get the better of Perez, given he’s in a more competitive car, doing the business against Tsunoda is a different story.

Last year, when Lawson stepped into then AlphaTauri for five races, the Kiwi finished ahead of his teammate in four of them.

Tsunoda’s own future with Red Bull is far from secure. As the only Japanese driver on the grid, Tsunoda’s value comes down to his association with Honda, Red Bull’s engine supplier.

But Honda will leave Red Bull after 2025 to join Aston Martin, and given Tsunoda is only contracted to the end of next season, you can bet he will depart when the engines do.

With that in mind, Lawson would be within his rights to consider himself the frontrunner, if and when Red Bull decide to make a change within its senior ranks.

Lawson beating Tsunoda would give him a very good chance of stepping into Red Bull next year. Beating Perez would almost guarantee it.

However, getting to grips with the 2024 Racing Bulls car will be a tough ask, in comparison to when he jumped into the 2023 AlphaTauri.

For a start, he’s effectively returning to Formula One cold. Last season, his AlphaTauri stint fell perfectly between his commitments in Japan’s Super Formula championship.

The cars in Super Formula are as close to Formula One as you can ask for. So while there was some adjustment needed, Lawson was able to very quickly get the hang of it.

Liam Lawson at the Dutch Grand Prix. Photo / Getty Images

This year, he’s had no such luxury. Having been forced to be patient, Lawson has spent all of 2024 on the sidelines, as Red Bull’s reserve driver.

The Kiwi has spent a little bit of time on track. Last week, he was behind the wheel of this season’s Red Bull car at Italy’s Mugello circuit for a Pirelli tyre test, and did the same at Monza after the Italian Grand Prix.

However, while the latter gave him two opportunities, bad weather meant just 50 laps were possible behind the wheel of the Racing Bulls’ VCARB01 car he’ll be in this season.

To make things worse, when Lawson lines up to start in Austin, it’s almost certainly going to be from 20th position, thanks to an engine penalty incurred by Ricciardo before his exit from the sport.

But as we saw last year, those challenges don’t faze Lawson. At Zandvoort, he qualified 20th after a truncated practice time and poor qualifying, but finished 13th in the Grand Prix.

That race saw Lawson beat Tsunoda, as well as previous race winners Charles Leclerc, Valtteri Bottas and George Russell.

Two races later, he knocked Verstappen out of qualifying in Singapore, and inadvertently stopped Red Bull winning every race on the 2023 calendar.

With just six Grands Prix to go this year, Lawson will at least return to Qatar – where he struggled in 2023, but at the very least boasts experience on the Lusail circuit.

However, he’ll also race at Mexico City, where he tested the 2022 AlphaTauri car as part of Formula One’s young driver programme, and Abu Dhabi, where he finished his Formula Two career with a first- and third-place finish at Yas Island.

Before Austin, Racing Bulls sit sixth in the constructors championship, just three points ahead of Haas in seventh. Should Lawson help hold that place, Red Bull will have no choice but to keep him on for 2025 and beyond.

Formula One is just as much about opportunity as it is about ability; Lawson now has both.