Kris Shannon on why the A-League's Wellington Phoenix will win a title before the Warriors in the NRL.
1. It's easier to win the A-League than the NRL
Sparked by an argument raised by Newstalk ZB's Jason Pine, the strengths of the respective competitions is the most persuasive piece ofevidence.
In part, it's a simple maths lesson. There are 16 teams in the NRL and 12 in the A-League. The most arithmetic this column usually entertains is counting to five, but those numbers give the Phoenix a higher chance of being the last team standing.
A greater part of the disparity between the competitions is found in a combination of heritage, popularity and finances.
The NRL is a bigger competition than the A-League by any available metric. It has a longer history, more people attend and watch games on TV, and there's a larger prize pool for teams and individuals to chase on and off the field.
That means more Aussie and Kiwi kids dream of winning the NRL premiership than the A-League trophy, a reality not limited to only players.
All of which adds up to a degree of difficulty facing the Warriors far tougher than the Phoenix encounter.
The Phoenix celebrate after David Ball's goal against Sydney FC last month. Photo / Photosport
2. Football, bloody hell
Those immortal words were spoken by Sir Alex Ferguson after Manchester United scored twice in stoppage time to win the Champions League and complete an unprecedented treble in 1999.
Roughly translated: football is a random sport filled with random results.
It's just the nature of a game in which scoring is so difficult. Weaker teams can park the metaphorical bus, soak up pressure and, against the odds, grab the only goal.
Which is the crucial point in favour of the chances of the Phoenix: they don't necessarily have to be a great side to win it all.
That's especially true since the A-League, unlike the norm in football, is decided through a knockout format.
Like the NRL, half the teams in the competition are invited to the playoffs, so a ticket to the lottery is all that's required. But unlike the Warriors' route to the grand final, in football it's much easier to scrape together a few results, ride little luck and pop the champagne.
The Phoenix will never boast the financial might of Sydney FC or Melbourne City. But nor do they need to when sixth place can bring success.
3. The youth movement
On Sunday, 18 months since his last Phoenix appearance, Libby Cacace started against seven-time European champions AC Milan. He and Sarpreet Singh - who moved from the Phoenix to Bayern Munich - are the headliners, but hardly aberrations.
The Phoenix have developed a steady supply chain that churns out Kiwi prospects to play further afield but first, importantly for this argument, for the first team.
When someone like Cacace moves on, he's replaced by another homegrown talent, and Sam Sutton also becomes one of the best fullbacks in the league.
Sam Sutton of the Phoenix in action. Photo / Photosport
The Warriors' production line is comparatively nowhere near as productive, for some reasons out of their control.
While the Phoenix offer Kiwi kids the only route to professional football played in this part of the world - since New Zealanders count as imports at Australian clubs - the Warriors compete against 15 other NRL sides for youngsters' signatures.
The Australian agent and scouting network has grown massively and young local players can head across the Tasman without even considering a stop at Mt Smart Stadium.
The Warriors haven't helped themselves with some bad decisions at development level, but the club is already operating at a structural disadvantage.
4. Coach driving in the right direction
Few Warriors fans will argue Nathan Brown is the man to take the team to the promised land. He might yet prove a decent coach, but unlikely one capable of overhauling the club and turning the Warriors into genuine contenders.
Ufuk Talay, however, has already done that. Most Phoenix fans aren't worried whether Talay is the right coach; they're worried about hanging on to him.
His teams are set up to win. They want the ball, control games, and create chances through positive play and pressure.
Talay's system is so ingrained that it's unusual when the Phoenix stray from it, although, as discussed, in football that doesn't always lead to results.
The man also has an eye for talent. There's a world full of football imports out there, but these days the Phoenix rarely miss in that regard.
Even if Talay isn't long for Wellington, there's no doubt he has the club heading in the right direction. The same, unfortunately, can't be said of Brown.
Warriors coach Nathan Brown. Photo / Photosport
5. The Warriors will never win a title
Okay, not literally never. But it might feel that way every time the Warriors blow a second-half lead, and getting stuck in a losing cycle is a tough thing to break free of.
World sport is filled with perennial losers, because being bad on the pitch permeates every level of a franchise, proving a difficult stench to remove.
It might be painful but so is life - though before we get too existentially grim, think about how joyful it will be if they do one day break through.
Think about the Chicago Cubs finally winning the World Series after 108 years, when some diehards celebrated at cemeteries with long-dead earlier generations of supporters.
Okay, that does sound grim. Warriors fans ... have you considered also supporting the Phoenix?
