All Blacks coaches will say the door is never closed to new players. And they are right, it never actually is, but it's increasingly difficult to see a new face breaking into the All Blacks between now and the World Cup next year.
In naming a 35-man squad totake to Japan and the UK later this month, which contains just one player who has not yet featured for the All Blacks this year, head coach Ian Foster has confirmed he's not actively chasing an unknown quantity to inject into his personnel mix.
Foster and his coaching group have inordinate faith in the players they used throughout the Rugby Championship and they are ready to back them, or 33 of them at least, all the way through to the World Cup.
The coaches haven't taken this last chance to have a look at a few players they are intrigued about. They don't believe they have anyone yet, whom they haven't yet seen play for the All Blacks, who they need to promote.
Maybe that's because they have the luxury of the All Blacks XV being in action this November and it's there they can spin the wheel and see if they can unearth someone new and exciting that could yet surprise them as a possible World Cup contender.
But it's more realistic to believe that if the All Blacks door is open to new players, it's only just. More likely, if there are to be changes in personnel between now and September next year, it will be a case of recalling known entities, men such as Joe Moody, Jack Goodhue and Ethan Blackadder who would all have been heavily involved this year but for serious injury.
It is, however, going to be decidedly hard for those not in the squad to force their way in - even those with a bank of test experience.
They will have to state a compelling case as Foster is happy with the men he's used throughout this year and there doesn't appear to be many in the 35 picked for this tour who would be considered vulnerable.
If the squad had to be trimmed down to the World Cup limit of 33 today, it would probably be a case of dropping Braydon Ennor and either Leicester Fainga'anuku or Stephen Perofeta.
If Goodhue and or Quinn Tupaea are fit and in form by September next year, then possibly one comes in to replace Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
Anton Lienert-Brown has been recalled after missing most of the season due to a serious shoulder injury, and his return will encourage the likes of Moody and Blackadder that Foster doesn't forget those who have delivered quality performances in the past.
Anton Lienert-Brown made his return for Waikato today. Photo / Photosport
But still, if Moody is going to earn a call-up when he returns to action next year, he's going to have to deliver significant wow factor as Ethan de Groot has been a revelation, George Bower a steady improver and Ofa Tuungafasi has the advantage of being able to play both sides of the scrum.
The same will be true of any back rower hoping to force their way into the World Cup squad.
The All Blacks will likely take six loose forwards to France and of the six picked for this coming tour, Hoskins Sotutu would probably be the most vulnerable.
But how vulnerable is hard to assess. Foster picked Sotutu in 2020 and he's been an ever-present in the squad ever since.
He has only made one start this year, and his defensive effort in Melbourne was poor. Yet he's still in the squad and Foster and his coaching team have invested enough in Sotutu to suggest he's a player they are convinced has plenty to offer at this level.
So if Blackadder and another promising contender with previous test experience, Cullen Grace, are going to force a rethink and persuade the selection panel to drop a player they have been loyal to for the last three years, they are going to have provide irrefutable evidence of that being the right thing to do.
The door is never closed but it seems less open at this point comparison with previous World Cup cycles.
In 2003 the All Blacks hauled several new faces into their World Cup squad, including Daniel Carter, Ma'a Nonu, Mils Muliana and Joe Rokocoko – men who all emerged in Super Rugby that year.
In 2015, the All Blacks discovered Nehe Milner-Skudder and Waisake Naholo and in 2019, it was Sevu Reece who played the role of unknown wildcard.
The mystery factor this time round seem likely to be a lot less, but it's not a bad thing at all that with the tournament just around the corner, the selection panel have a conviction about the men they have picked all year.
