Scott Robertson will this Saturday have the chance to do something his predecessor Ian Foster nevermanaged and coach the All Blacks to a test win in Wellington.
Robertson’s troops can also end what must be the most galling statistic in All Blacks modern history – and win in Wellington for the first time since June 2018 when they beat France.
The All Blacks’ record in the capital, where they have not won for six years, is now more extraordinary than their record in Auckland where they have not lost for 30 years.
To call Sky Stadium the All Blacks bogey ground would be to grossly understate what sort of graveyard it has become for the national team.
After they beat France in 2018, they came back to Wellington two months later and lost to South Africa.
The following year they drew with South Africa, then they drew with the Wallabies in 2020 (they also lost to the Lions in 2017), and in 2022, they were well beaten by Ireland.
In their past six games in Wellington, they have won once, lost three times and drawn twice, making Sky Stadium the ground at which they have enjoyed the least success not just in New Zealand, but anywhere in the world.
How this hoodoo has developed is impossible to say. The defeat to the Lions was heavily influenced by a red card to Sonny Bill Williams.
The loss to South Africa in 2018 could be attributed to an impetuous, hot-headed failure by the All Blacks’ key decision-makers to think clearly.
The following year – South Africa pulled off a late miracle try to save the day.
The game in 2020 was Ian Foster’s first in charge and carried all the hallmarks of a team that didn’t know who they were, and in 2022 Ireland were quite brilliant – and won because they were the better team.
There’s been no pattern or overlying theme to the All Blacks failures in Wellington, although with the exception of the 2020 Wallabies, their respective conquerors have all been high-quality teams.
The Lions went on to draw the series; the Springboks won the World Cup and Ireland have been, predominantly, the world’s best team since they won in New Zealand.
But the recent history in Wellington doesn’t make any sense because the All Blacks have managed to amass incredible win records against incredible teams in all the venues that would be considered the most hostile and difficult to win – Ellis Park Aviva Stadium, Twickenham and Stade de France.
Ireland celebrate beating the All Blacks in Wellington in 2022. Photo / Photosport
And so who would have thought that of all the places to play the All Blacks, it is in their own capital city where they are most vulnerable?
And the question of vulnerability is one that looms large over this test. Of specific concern is that the All Blacks have been forced into selecting three locks who would rank as the least experienced trio the national team have picked since they faced South Africa in 2008 with Anthony Boric starting for the first time and the uncapped Kevin O’Neill on the bench.
When Ali Williams, closing in on 50 caps at the time, was forced off early in the game, the All Blacks’ lack of experience at the lineout ended up hurting them and arguably costing them the game.
Argentina are not in the same class as the Springboks, but their strength lies in their forwards and their ability to unsettle and destabilise Tupou Vai’i, Sam Darry and Josh Lord is not something the All Blacks can afford to underestimate.
Locks have become modern-day pillars of any international team, critical parts of every confrontational element rugby presents. And when they fail to perform, teams can’t win the ball or keep the ball, and they certainly can’t win the collision warfare that decides who plays with momentum.
The All Blacks paid a hefty price for their lack of experience at lock in 2008, just as they did again in 2016 when loose forward Jerome Kaino was pressed into playing in the second row in Chicago.
He was a beast with a No 6 on his back, but not that day when he wore No 5 and history has strongly illustrated the dangers of being inexperienced or under-powered at lock.
With that in mind, it’s easy enough to imagine that if the Wellington wind is swirling around Westpac Stadium – and when it is not? – that the All Blacks lineout could be under the sort of pressure that makes it wobble, angst builds and spreads and before anyone knows what’s happening, the Pumas are surging towards another unexpected victory.
It’s happened before – twice in the past four years – and with the Wellington hoodoo factor to consider, too, Robertson has to be believed when he says Argentina are a genuine threat.
“Argentina play with emotion,” offered Robertson on what he was expecting.
“That’s where they draw from – that passion. Having coached my good friend Pablo [Matera], I understand where he draws his energy from. On their day they can scare, they can frighten and they can beat you.
“The physicality and the contact that they bring is really important, and different from them.”
But so too must Robertson be believed when he says he is viewing this test more as an opportunity rather than a threat.
Vai’i, Darry and Lord have 33 caps between them, but their respective size, athleticism and skill sets are undeniably exciting.
They are all playing in the shadow of the now-retired Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick and the usual assumptions that come at the end of great eras that it will take an age for another two great locks to come along and deliver in the same way.
But if there is one specific factor that has sat at the heart of Robertson’s coaching success to date, it’s been his ability to sell hope and confidence to his players and make them see they are not burdened in trying to emulate what has gone before, but liberated to produce what has never been seen.
“We’ve got a big six-foot-eight [2m] lock coming in and a six-foot-nine lock on the bench,” Robertson said by way of suggesting he’s not lamenting the loss of Whitelock and Retallick but celebrating the arrival of the next generation.
“They’re good athletes. When someone retires, someone gets an opportunity, so it’s their opportunity. We set them up the best we can to perform and they’ve done it themselves, too, they’ve owned their roles.
“Now it’s their time on Saturday night so they can keep the jersey.”
