That front was forecast to move up the country throughout the rest of the working week, bringing rain to most areas by Thursday, before another ridge is to bring a return to settled conditions next weekend.
MetService was forecasting westerlies and showers for Auckland on Wednesday and Thursday – albeit still with highs in the early 20s – with a similar picture for northern centres including Tauranga and Hamilton.
In Wellington, there was a chance of heavy showers on Wednesday, along with strong northwesterly winds.
There was also potential for some showers in eastern centres throughout the week – but not enough to ease dryness that’s been setting in ahead of summer.
“There might be the odd shower that creeps out of a southerly flick that pops through, but it’s not going to be much, and certainly not enough to counter any drought effects.”
Over the weekend, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) reported meteorological drought conditions have now emerged in southern Hawke’s Bay.
So far in November, Napier, Gisborne and Mahia Peninsula have respectively received just 12%, 11% and 8% of their normal November rainfall levels.
Barry said current modelling showed little sign of that picture changing any time soon.
“It doesn’t look like the east coast will be getting much of a reprieve over the next month.”
Those dry trends had developed after months of spring weather conditions much like the week ahead, with constant westerly fronts.
Barry said as we edge closer to summer, we can expect more ridges to form over the whole of New Zealand, bringing dry and settled weather.
Niwa reports temperatures are likely to be warmer than average over the November-to-January period, with frequent northwesterly winds leading to more days above 25C.
Also raising the odds for hot summer weather was the potential for marine heatwave conditions – already occurring in seas to the east of New Zealand – to expand and intensify.
Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.
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