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Home / New Zealand / Politics

Trump slump to poll bump? Christopher Luxon’s big opportunity amid tariff chaos – Audrey Young

Audrey Young
By Audrey Young
Senior Political Correspondent·NZ Herald·
10 Apr, 2025 12:42 AM7 mins to read

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Christopher Luxon plans free-trade talks blitz as Trump changes tune on tariffs
Audrey Young
Opinion by Audrey Young
Audrey Young, Senior Political Correspondent at the New Zealand Herald based at Parliament, specialises in writing about politics and power.
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This is a transcript of the Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click here, select “Inside Politics with Audrey Young” and save your preferences. For a step-by-step guide, click here.

Welcome to Inside Politics. The tumult caused by Donald Trump’s tariff policy is giving the markets and governments whiplash. The speech prepared by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon last night for delivery in Wellington on Thursday morning on next steps had to be changed to account for yet another White House policy lurch – albeit a welcome one with most tariffs being put on hold. Trump’s own advisers have got into a public slanging match, with his special friend Elon Musk calling Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks“.

But with US tariffs on China ramped up overnight to 125%, the only thing we can be sure of is that instability continues.

No one wants a crisis, but it is giving Luxon a chance to show some leadership that hasn’t presented itself before. And if he handles it competently, it could well erode the advantage the left bloc has had.

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Finance Minister Nicola Willis was fast out of the blocks on Tuesday, holding a press conference to explain the effects the global uncertainty could have on next month’s Budget.

Luxon’s speech on Thursday morning suggests the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) could be at the centre of a response to ensure things don’t get out of hand. “One possibility is that members of the CPTPP and the European Union work together to champion rules-based trade and make specific commitments on how that support plays out in practice,” the PM said.

He is also planning a visit to the UK later this month to talk trade and security.

Doyle’s complicated explanation

It was an afternoon of fronting up yesterday for Green Party MP Benjamin Doyle over posts on the MP’s private Instagram account.

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There is no doubt that Doyle was the victim of some vicious slurs and innuendo last week, but there was no recognition that the MP was in any way responsible for the firestorm and no sense of regret, despite the fact that he was previously advised to take the page down.

Until Wednesday, Doyle had been lying low and leaving co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick to try to explain the crude language – Bussy Galore – accompanying photos of Doyle and Doyle’s child.

Surrounded by supporters in Parliament’s Rainbow Room, the MP explained it like this: “The caption – which references me – is an example of the way marginalised communities often reclaim or subvert language in order to exist unapologetically. I recognise that Bussy is not a term all rainbow people use or like, but it is one that is commonly understood and appreciated by my friends and community. For me, this term is wordplay and represents the combination of my masculine and feminine qualities as a non-binary person – someone whose gender doesn’t fit into a strict category. It’s also a satirical in-joke with references to pop music, drag culture, Bond novels and 1960s cinema, made about myself with people who know me in mind.”

Asked about Winston Peters having led the attack against the MP – suggesting the images should be referred to the police – Doyle’s preference was for a one-on-one “restorative” discussion with Peters. We think hell might freeze over before that happens.

The power of the Treaty Principles Bill

Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protesters on Parliament grounds in November last year. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protesters on Parliament grounds in November last year. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The Act Party bill rewriting the Treaty principles caused the largest political protest in living memory and is set to be voted down in Parliament this afternoon. If Luxon ever gets to conduct coalition negotiations again, he is likely to be more cautious and discerning about what he lets through. It is doubtful he – or anyone else – anticipated the extent of the controversy it would stir up. He thought opposition would be muted because it was bound to fail.

The bill has achieved two things: deepening suspicion in Māori about the Crown and the Treaty of Waitangi; and creating an unrivalled platform for Te Pāti Māori to galvanise a new generation of supporters.

Three birthdays and a mission

Foreign Minister Winston Peters leaves the country today to lead a cross-party mission to the Pacific, taking eight other MPs to Tonga, Hawaii and Vanuatu. The other MPs on the trip are National’s Shane Reti, Simon Watts and Tim van de Molen, Act’s Nicole McKee, Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni and Jenny Salesa, the Greens’ Teanau Tuiono and New Zealand First’s Andy Foster. Peters will be in Tonga on Friday when he turns 80 and then, after leaving on Saturday, he crosses the dateline and arrives in Honolulu – also on April 11.

Speaking of birthdays, when the youthful-looking Health Minister Simeon Brown deferred to Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey to answer a question during the annual review debate in Parliament on Tuesday, Doocey not only took time to wish Brown a happy birthday but cheekily a happy 18th birthday. Brown turned 34.

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By the way ...

The Prime Minister opened his post-Cabinet press conference on Monday by paying tribute to Claire Trevett, who is departing as political editor of the NZ Herald. She has been a popular and highly talented member of the Press Gallery for 18 years and there was a great send-off for her at Parliament on Wednesday night from colleagues and MPs. She will be replaced by our very capable deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan.

Quote unquote

“I am here to bring my full self into Parliament and to represent my communities in the most authentic way possible. This is why, when I was advised by the party to delete the page before coming to Parliament, I chose not to. I can admit that I was politically naive and we have paid a huge price for this naivety.” – Green MP Benjamin Doyle

Micro quiz

Retiring Labour list MP David Parker was once elected as an electorate MP. Where and when? (Answer below.)

Brickbat

President Donald Trump announces new US trade tariffs on April 2. Photo / Getty Images
President Donald Trump announces new US trade tariffs on April 2. Photo / Getty Images

No contest. US President Donald Trump for his recklessness over tariffs. No modern politician has done so much harm to so many people’s pockets with so little regard for them or his own country’s standing.

Bouquet

Calm under pressure: Finance Minister Nicola Willis (left) and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Calm under pressure: Finance Minister Nicola Willis (left) and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Goes to Luxon and Willis for their measured response to a potential Trump Slump.

Latest political news and views

Trump tariffs: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he’ll make an all-out push to protect free and fair trade after US President Donald Trump hiked China tariffs to 125% and paused others.

Trump tariffs: Finance Minister Nicola Willis has warned that new US trade tariffs are weighing on New Zealand’s growth prospects, but says she doesn’t plan to change the forthcoming Budget as a result.

Treaty bill: Act’s controversial Treaty Principles Bill is expected to be voted down by a large majority after its second reading in Parliament.

Doyle controversy: Green Party MP Benjamin Doyle has returned to Parliament, saying their social media posts never had a sexual meaning and they don’t believe they did anything wrong.

Paul controversy: Green MP Tamatha Paul has hit back at Labour after leader Chris Hipkins criticised her comments about police beat patrols.

Paul controversy: The majority of New Zealanders feel “more safe” when they see police officers on beat patrols, new poll results show.

Defence spending: The Government’s defence spending will hit more than 2% of GDP within the next eight years, with a long-awaited plan revealing $12 billion in funding over the next four years.

OPINION – Parker resignation: Long-serving Labour MP David Parker will leave politics with the respect of most members of the House, writes Audrey Young.

Gene Technology Bill: A controversial bill that would liberalise genetic engineering laws is on track to be passed in Parliament. Here’s what’s in it – and the arguments for and against.

Polls: Support for the coalition Government parties is growing after polls earlier in the year suggested the Opposition was gaining momentum, the latest 1News-Verian poll suggests.

Climate fund: The Government plans to close a $400 million climate investment fund championed by former Climate Change Minister James Shaw.

Quiz answer: Otago in 2002

For more political news and views, listen to On the Tiles, the Herald’s politics podcast.

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