By Craig McCulloch of RNZ
The latest RNZ-Reid Research political poll points to a deadlocked Parliament, with Labour still narrowly ahead of National but neither bloc able to govern on its own.
And Te Pāti Māori’s success in the electorates could be the clincher.
Labour has retained its position as the most popular party, rising 1.1 points to 34.3%. National is close behind on 32.5%, up 1.8 points.
The Greens have slipped to 10.9%, New Zealand First has dipped to 8.7, and Act has edged up to 7.2.
Te Pāti Māori has taken the biggest knock, sliding 1.4 points to 4.1%.
The poll was taken from September 4-12, capturing Te Pāti Māori’s byelection triumph in Tāmaki Makaurau, and the controversy that followed over MP Takuta Ferris’ social media posts.
It was also conducted against the backdrop of a faltering economy and Government promises to tackle the high cost of living.
The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters online with a maximum margin of error of 3.1%. Undecided or non-voters make up 5.8% of those polled.
On these numbers, the right bloc (National, NZ First, Act) and the left bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) would each hold 60 seats – a hung Parliament.
National would return 40 MPs, NZ First 11 and Act 9. Labour would have 42 MPs, the Greens 13 and Te Pāti Māori 5, assuming it holds at least one electorate.
That leaves neither side with a majority.
If Te Pāti Māori retained all six of its current seats, however, Parliament would have a one-seat overhang, resulting in a 61-60 split, favouring the left.
On the preferred prime minister measure, Labour’s Chris Hipkins leads on 23%, down by 0.2.
National’s Christopher Luxon has risen 0.8 points to 19.6%.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is steady on 8.9%, ahead of the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick (6.5) and Act’s David Seymour (5.8).
Speaking to RNZ, Luxon reiterated his position on not commenting on individual polls but said he remained focused on the economy.
“I was elected in 2023 to do a job. I know what that job is,” Luxon said. “New Zealanders want me to fix the economy, and that’s been very clear from day one.”
In keeping with tradition, Peters dismissed the numbers, pointing instead to the 1000-strong crowd at his recent NZ First convention and speech.
“The reality is that the next election is not in the balance. We just need greater time to explain exactly what is going on and what we can’t afford to go on in the future.”
Seymour – also Deputy Prime Minister – dubbed it a “mid-term, mid-winter, middle-of-the-road poll”.
“It’s a tough time out there. Our job is not only to give hope, but to do the real work, and I believe we can point to us doing that.”
Asked whether NZ First had replaced Act as the key coalition partner, Seymour said: “We’ve been ahead of those guys for five years ... if anything, this poll shows that that can change, and it can change again.”
Hipkins said Labour’s edge showed voters were turning away from the coalition.
“The Government’s out of touch with the issues that are facing New Zealanders. They promised to fix the cost of living. They haven’t.
“They promised to create jobs. Unemployment is growing. New Zealanders can see that this Government’s taking the country backwards.”
Greens’ co-leader Marama Davidson said her party would continue to make the case for change.
“Some people are feeling really despondent, and that’s why Chlöe and I and all of our MPs are focused on getting on the ground.”
Te Pāti Māori declined to be interviewed by RNZ.
– RNZ