Labour is out in front in the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll. Video / Mark Mitchell
THE FACTS
Te Pāti Māori released documents revealing several allegations about MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and former staffer Eru Kapa-Kingi.
Two out of four recent polls put National below 30%.
Tens of thousands are expected to participate in strike action on Thursday.
OPINION
You could almost hear the sighs of relief coming from National’s caucus.
Te Pāti Māori’s email to its members with explosive allegations that undermine one of its current MPs and a former vice-president on Monday gave all three Government parties another chance to batter Labour overwhat polling suggests is a necessary coalition together with the Greens.
Labour, wary of the corner National wants to back its rival into as the two parties jostle for dominance of the centre vote, ran with what could have been an Act Party line, questioning “how many Māori parties there are” as rifts within grow more apparent.
It will be a tragic and frustrating saga to witness for all those Māori electorate voters who acted strategically in 2023 by giving Te Pāti Māori their candidate vote even if they favoured Labour for their party vote.
Instead of seeing empowered MPs enhancing what has become an iconic political movement, supporters see a party barely able to get into second gear before another public spat stalls the engine.
It couldn’t be better encapsulated by the events that followed Te Pāti Māori’s promised “reset”, when days later a late-night email to members detailed apparent overspending from MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and claims of an ugly incident between former staffer Eru Kapa-Kingi (also Mariameno’s son) and parliament security staff on Budget day last year.
There is an argument to say the disclosure honours the co-leaders’ commitment to a more transparent communication style, but how the information was released suggests it is just another volley in the mud-slinging between Eru Kapa-Kingi and Te Pāti Māori’s leadership.
Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer at the party's "reset" last week. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Party president John Tamihere and the MPs have largely gone to ground this week (co-leader Rawiri Waititi literally put 10,000km between him and Parliament) as they try to work through their issues in-house.
A lot of questions remain unanswered about the material published by Te Pāti Māori. Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer claims Mariameno’s $133,000 overspend is resolved, but how it got so out of hand and what oversight the party had of the situation is unclear, leaving the likes of Nicola Willis to suggest something nefarious could be afoot.
While Mariameno has acknowledged an incident did happen on Budget day, Eru Kapa-Kingi is yet to properly confront the allegations.
The party says it only became aware of an incident recently during its review prompted by Eru’s allegations of a party dictatorship. Given Mariameno scoffs at the party’s claim, either Te Pāti Māori knew more than it was letting on, or there are serious reporting failures if such an incident wasn’t elevated.
Not helping matters is the Parliamentary Service’s refusal to explain what happened to a complaint about the incident. It hardly portrays the image of a responsible employer if we know nothing about how they managed a report alleging staffers were threatened and abused.
As such, Te Pāti Māori supporters will be finding it hard to see a path towards peaceful resolution, with Labour’s Willie Jackson suggesting a split may be inevitable.
Some in the Government have been quick to reach for the popcorn as they argue their claims of a “coalition of chaos” are becoming clearer to the public. Others are more cautious, recognising that should Te Pāti Māori continue its downward spiral, a Labour-Greens pairing could become a possibility, especially if Labour takes some risks in its Māori electorate campaigns.
Te Pāti Māori’s turmoil did briefly shift attention from National MPs, who would have welcomed a reprieve from the unhappiness emanating from some of their electorates and a flurry of depressing polling for the party and its leader.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon focused on the Government's success in education this week. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Since Wednesday last week, four separate polls have been released. Two put National in the 20s (Talbot Mills and Taxpayers’ Union-Curia), with 34% being its highest result (1News-Verian).
Two of the four polls still suggest the current coalition gets another term; thanks largely to New Zealand First, which came in at 9%, 10.6%, 11% and 12% as the party goes through a polling purple patch.
Hipkins also trumps Luxon in most preferred PM and favourability ratings; the Labour leader is somehow considered most likely to make decisions that will improve voters’ lives in the Post/Freshwater poll, despite having no policy decisions to speak of.
As Luxon remembers the legacy of former PM Jim Bolger, who died on Wednesday evening, he might find some solace in the plain-speaking farmer’s declaration on election night 1993: “Bugger the pollsters.”
Aside from a much-anticipated economic recovery, National is primed to make hay when Labour finally introduces its economic plan to the country.
The party’s social media content creators have been forced to wait a few more days because Labour’s first policy announcement on Thursday was delayed until early next week due to Bolger’s death.
That didn’t stop Act, though, with a slightly sheepish David Seymour paying tribute to Bolger’s legacy while standing in front of two large cakes celebrating plans to relax health and safety regulations for casual home-based bakers (Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard’s imminent departure overseas reportedly compelled the party to stick to its schedule, as well as not wanting a well-decorated cake from Hoggard’s wife to go to waste).
In lieu of their opposition’s tax policy, which is imminent, National has relied on two of its more profitable areas so far this term: education and social development.
Alongside law and order, the Government’s “back to basics” approach to education has regularly struck the right chord, no doubt informing Erica Stanford’s “education week”, in which the Education Minister trumpeted improvements in structured literacy and maths, as well as finding $100 million to build more classrooms.
All will burnish Stanford’s reputation, but it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the party’s polling; that lemon has been well and truly squeezed, much like Luxon’s intolerance for unemployed young people, which was reinforced through the Government making parents earning more than $65,000 responsible for their out-of-work 18-year-olds.
Secondary school teachers strike outside Judith Collins' electorate office in Papakura in August. Photo / Alyse Wright
The Government will again go on the offensive this week against the unions before the so-called mega-strike on Thursday featuring tens of thousands of doctors, nurses, dentists, healthcare workers and teachers.
The crack team of Public Service Minister Judith Collins, Health Minister Simeon Brown and Stanford will be ramming home the claim that politically motivated unions are to blame for disruption to health and education services, which the unions reject.
There’s no doubt the union leaders recognise the electoral risk posed to the Government if negotiations remain unresolved going into 2026, particularly for healthcare workforces as excessive cost and access inequities persist in the health system.
Brown, in particular, has refused to back down, accusing doctors of failing their ethical duties by striking. In a spur-of-the-moment comment on Friday, Brown also suggested the Government might change the law to limit the right to strike for critical services.
It’s understood the Government isn’t considering such a law change, and Brown’s threats could do more harm than good if he is trying to paint the unions as the vindictive ones.
In a time when people’s cost-of-living burdens are filling their field of view, winning the narrative on who’s to blame for empty classrooms and hospital wards will be critical in resolving a persistent problem for the coalition’s re-election hopes.
Adam Pearse is the deputy political editor and part of the NZ Herald’s press gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.
