National leads Labour in latest poll - but Chris Hipkins’ party gets big boost

• National has increased its support in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll.
• Labour is closing the gap, however, gaining a sizeable boost.
• Both Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins have increased their support.

National still leads Labour in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, but Chris Hipkins’ party has seen a sizeable lift in support.

The results were released on Thursday afternoon, covering April 30 to May 4. That reflects a period in which the Government was making pre-Budget announcements and speeches, but before the revelation of significant changes to the pay equity regime.

National sits at 34.6%, up 1.1 points since April’s poll, while Labour has jumped 3.4 points to 33.2%.

Looking at the smaller parties, Act is down 0.5 to 9.5%, the Greens have fallen 1.9 points to 9.1%, NZ First has seen no change and remains at 7.4%, and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.4 to 3.9%. Others are on 2.3%.

In terms of seats, that leaves National on 42, Labour on 41, Act on 12, Greens on 11, NZ First on nine, and Te Pāti Māori on six. That would allow the current coalition to continue governing with 63 seats, compared with 58 held by the left.

The Government has been making pre-Budget announcements in recent weeks. Photo / Alex Burton

National’s Christopher Luxon has lifted his support in the preferred-Prime Minister stakes, up 2.6 points to 24.5%, while Hipkins is up 1.1 points to 20%. NZ First leader Winston Peters has seen a big fall, down 4.7 points to 8.1%, while Act’s David Seymour is down 1.3 points to 6.7%, and the Green Party’s co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has lifted 0.8 to 5%.

Curia also collected data on whether New Zealanders believe the country is heading in either the “right” or the “wrong” track. The results show 33.3% (down 8.5 points) believe the country is going in the right direction, while 46% (up 1.8 points) say it going in the wrong direction.

Subtracting the “wrong” direction number from the “right” direction gives a net figure of -12.7%, a fall of 10.3 points since the poll last month.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll is usually published early each month, meaning next month’s poll should capture public reaction to the Government’s Budget, scheduled to be delivered on May 22.

In the past two weeks, the Government has made several pre-Budget announcements. That has included announcing the operational allowance would be cut from $2.4 billion to $1.3b, committing funding to help with teacher registration fees, and allocating $957 million in defence activities, personnel and estate, alongside $2b for new helicopters.

On Tuesday, the Government began a move to change the pay equity regime, making it more difficult for people to take claims. While it has been argued that the current regime has workability issues, its opponents say this will hurt workers’ incomes. Protests are being planned around the country against the changes over coming days.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday, April 30, and Sunday, May 4. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%, and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.

Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office.