More convictions, more likelihood of jail time, spike in youth robbery - what the latest crime statistics show

The latest crime statistics show a spike in the number of robberies, burglaries and theft by children or young people, continuing an upward trend in youth crime since 2021.

The Ministry of Justice data, released today, is for finalised charges for 2023, meaning they do not include charges that are still before the courts. As such, the data does not necessarily show whether actual crime is rising or falling, though looking at the data over time can indicate trends.

Overall there is a continuing upward trend in sexual and violent crime data - including family violence - while judges appear to be sending more of those convicted of serious or violent offences to prison.

Last year also saw the ongoing pattern of most of those in the youth justice system eventually receiving a discharge, which has contributed to a huge drop-off in youth crime over 15 years.

Of the approximately 1600 young people aged between 10 and 17 with a finalised charge in 2023, more than half were given a s282 discharge, where they’ve admitted their offending and completed interventions. One in five faced a s283 Youth Court order, which ranges in punishment from an adult sentence at the most severe end to a discharge or admonishment (22 per cent received the latter).

Yet the numbers for youth crime continued to soar:

• The number of finalised charges for those aged 10 to 17 spiked by 35 per cent in 2023 compared to 2022. In real terms, this meant 8220 such charges in 2022 increasing to 11,127 such charges in 2023, which was the highest number in a year in the last decade.
• This rise was largely due to a 50 per cent jump in “theft and related offences”, a 44 per cent jump in “unlawful entry with intent/burglary, break and enter”, and a 59 per cent jump in “robbery, extortion and related offences”. An increasing proportion of all youth charges - 41 per cent in 2023 - were for theft.

• The number of children or young people facing these charges rose by 18 per cent in 2023 compared to 2022. This shows that the increase in the number of charges is growing at a much faster rate than the number of young people facing those charges.
• There was only a 5 per cent increase in the number of children or young people given an s283 court order, a third of which were for robbery and a fifth for burglary.
• These two offences accounted for 53 per cent of the young people who faced such court orders. Two years ago they only accounted for 35 per cent.

The recent spike in youth crime - particularly in burglary and robbery - has been associated with the social consequences of the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, a point that Police Commissioner Andrew Coster reinforced when he appeared before the justice select committee last month.

“With the more serious offending that we’re seeing, some of that is particularly concerning for the fact that it’s very young children involved; we’ve had kids as young as 7 involved in ram raids,” he told the committee.

There was no easy answer to how to stop it, he said.

“Re-engagement in school has got to be key. We know that the number of kids actively disengaged from school roughly doubled through Covid and that’s the group that we most deal with. So getting those kids back into education, or something, is important.”

In-depth: How greater use of non-punitive responses led to a massive drop in recorded youth crime for 15 years, but that trend reversed in 2021

A higher proportion of those convicted of serious or violent offences are facing jail time. Photo / 123RF

In all, almost 50,000 people were convicted on a finalised charge in 2023, up 4 per cent on 2022 though 19 per cent lower than in 2018.

• There was a 9 per cent rise in the number (15,072 people) with finalised charges for serious offences, which include homicide, sexual violation, and burglary.
• There was a 6 per cent rise in the number with finalised charges for violent offences (there is some crossover with serious offences, including homicide and sexual violation). A similar increase occurred in the number of people with finalised charges for family violence.
• Other trends included a 20 per cent increase in the number of people with prison sentences compared to 2022, and a higher proportion of those convicted being handed down a prison sentence (12 per cent in 2023 compared to 10 per cent in 2022).
• This proportion jumped to 37 per cent for those convicted of a serious offence (up from 33 per cent in 2022), 29 per cent for those convicted of a violent offence (up from 26 per cent), and 26 per cent for those convicted of family violence (up from 22 per cent).

An increase in recorded sexual and violent crime continues the same trend of recent years, following a much longer period of a declining trend. Photo / 123rf

The Coalition Government is preparing for a greater increase in prisoner numbers as it implements its law and order programme, including a crackdown on gangs, scrapping publicly-funded cultural reports, and setting a cap on sentencing discounts.

It also wants to add 500 more frontline police and reduce court delays, but remains locked in pay negotiations with the Police Association, while judicial resources are under increasing strain.

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.