Election 2023: New Talbot Mills poll - Labour in 30s, National/Act can still govern

Labour leader Chris Hipkins will likely be pleased with his party returning to the 30s after a poll last week found Labour had dropped to 27.1 per cent. Photo / Mark Mitchell

A new Talbot Mills poll has delivered a more positive result for the Labour Party and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins after it dropped into the 20s in the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll last week - but it still trails National as the right bloc holds the advantage.

The poll, conducted by Talbot Mills for its corporate clients, shows Labour on 32 per cent, up one percentage point from its previous poll and National on 35 per cent, down one point.

The polling period largely overlaps with that of last week’s Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll which had Labour dropping to 27.1 per cent and National well ahead on 34.9 per cent. However, the poll shows a different picture to Curia’s.

Talbot Mills also do Labour’s internal polling, while Curia Research does National’s internal polling.

The new Talbot Mills poll also has Hipkins retaining his lead over National leader Christopher Luxon as preferred Prime Minister, 34 per cent (up 2) and 24 per cent (up 3) respectively. Last week’s poll had the pair even on 25 per cent.

Act had dropped one point to 11 per cent - but on the poll results National and Act would be able to form a government.

The Green Party had risen two points to 10 per cent.

New Zealand First was on 4.4 per cent, up 0.4 points. That is lower than the 5.8 per cent in the Curia poll, but inching closer to the 5 per cent threshold required to enter Parliament.

Winston Peters' NZ First party was on the cusp of 5 per cent in the new poll. Photo / Alex Burton

Te Pāti Māori was on 3.1 per cent, down 1.1 points, and the Opportunities Party was on 1.8 per cent, down 1.2 points.

The poll of 1012 people was conducted online between July 31 and August 7 with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Last week’s Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll was conducted largely over the same period (August 3-8).

Between July 31 and August 7, the Government secured a teacher pay rise package worth $4.4 billion but was also accused by National of killing its proposed changes to paid parental leave for political reasons.

Act’s David Seymour also clarified earlier comments saying he wouldn’t work with NZ First’s Winston Peters.

On the penultimate day of polling, Hipkins announced the decision concerning the second Waitematā Harbour crossing and the Green Party proposed making dental care free for everyone and using a wealth tax to pay for it.

The poll asked respondents whether they believed the country was on the right or wrong track. The majority (55 per cent) thought it was on the wrong track, while 37 per cent believed it was on the right track - the most negative result on the question since about 2001.

They also rated the state of the economy; 76 per cent saying it was not so good or poor.

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.