Who's in, who's out? What a damning poll means for National MPs while the party is at 30 per cent

National Party leader Simon Bridges during his media conference. Photo / Pool

A number of high profile National MPs will be out of the job after September's election if polling remains on its current course, according to modelling obtained by the Herald, which is doing the rounds of the National caucus.

The likes of Michael Woodhouse, Alfred Ngaro, Melissa Lee and Anne Tolley could all be out of Parliament, based on Monday's Newshub/Reid-Research poll, which put National at 30.6 per cent.

Based on that modelling, just Paula Bennett and Paul Goldsmith could be the only list MPs to make it back into Parliament.

And the modelling suggests a number of National MPs in marginal seats could also be in trouble, including Hutt South's Chris Bishop, Tukituki MP Lawrence Yule and even Auckland Central's Nikki Kaye.

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But National leader Simon Bridges is emphatic that his party's support will rebound by election day.

Monday's poll showed National on 30.6 per cent, compared to Labour's 56.5 per cent.

"Polls jump around and my simple point is they're going to continue to do that," Bridges told Newstalk ZB yesterday.

The information on which National MPs could be out of Parliament after the election is based on a statistical modelling programme.

The model was not developed by the National Party, but it's understood a number of National's MPs have access to it.

It takes historical voting trends over the last two decades in each electorate and, after imputing a poll result, makes a calculation as to how likely it is an MP would retain their seat, and how many list MPs the party would likely receive.

For example, taking National's 30.6 per cent in the Newshub/Reid-Research poll, list MP Melissa Lee would not be back into Parliament on a list placing.

And, because of the loss in total overall votes, it assumes Chris Bishop will lose Wellington's Hutt South – a seat he won by just 1500 votes in 2017.

The modelling assumes that at 30.6 per cent, and with a 6 per cent wasted vote from minor parties not getting into Parliament, National would have 38 MPs in the House.

That would be made up of 36 electorate MPs in safe National seats, such as Tauranga and Papakura, and two – Bennett and Goldsmith – would come in on the list.

That is in stark contrast to 56 MPs National brought into Parliament last election – 41 as electorate MPs and 15 on the list.

As well as Woodhouse, Ngaro and Lee, National's Speaker-in-waiting Anne Tolley would not return to Parliament.

In December, Tolley announced she would not be seeking re-election as the MP for the East Coast as she wanted to be Speaker of the House, if National wins Government.

The demands of that job are such that it cannot be done while representing an electorate.

Also out, based on the modelling, could be Brett Hudson, Nicola Willis, Maureen Pugh, Jo Hayes, Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Jian Yang, Parmjeet Parmar and Paulo Garcia – all list-only candidates.

Based on the Reid-Research poll, the modelling assumes that Kaye would lose Auckland Central and Maungakiekie MP Denise Lee would lose her seat.

But there is a lot of time between now and the election.

As argued by Bridges, it is normal for incumbent governments to receive a bump in the polls after a national emergency.

After the 2011 Canterbury earthquake, support for the National Government spiked.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has received "wall-to-wall" coverage throughout the Covid-19 lockdown, according to Bridges.

He said National will regain its position in the polls as the election date draws near.