So what is the good news for Labour out of this week's polls?

Well, firstly they're still a credible party. Never forget that this thing turned the day Andrew Little quit as leader, Jacinda Ardern arrived - and they went from about 24 to 36 on election night, and sit now at about 40. That's not a bad story.

They have, of course, the power and influence of office. If you can't generate support when you have the entire repertoire of government there is something wrong with you.


Which brings us to the bad news: there is something wrong with them. They're losing support, the Prime Minister is losing support, and they're losing support against their partners who are either holding or growing.

Listen live: Jacinda Adern joins Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking at 7.35am to discuss Labour's poll numbers.

Most importantly they're losing support to the opposition - who in both polls are the most popular party, and rising.

The TVNZ poll numbers are nowhere as dramatic as MediaWorks'. That is because MediaWorks' numbers are rogue, and they should be questioning what they're paying for their polling. Presenting the nation a drop of nine points for Labour is not bad news for Labour, it's bad news for MediaWorks who look silly.

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But if you want further good news, the polls start now to look normal again. They give a broad-based, solid indication of where things are.

And where they are is trouble for the Government. New Zealand First are not above the threshold in either poll, and they are critical to Labour's survival.

That's the rest of the bad news for Labour, the Greens and Labour can't do it alone on TVNZ's numbers, and they should be able to. You shouldn't need a third player to get you across the line.

The trick for Labour is to solidify their base. The Greens are good for five or six per cent, that support seems baked in. Where Labour are so badly compromised is in delivery.


They are a mess. Let's not go down the list, but this is a Government whose reputation is now confirmed by polls to be a lot of noise and not a lot of delivery. The voters are calling them out.

Further good news though: it's October 2019, so a year to go till the election. But then for National, that's good news too. They've spent the majority of the past two years as the most popular party. These polls only enhance that.

If there is worry to be angsty over, it's not National that have the issues, it's Labour. They are in serious danger of taking a three-party deal and tanking it. They are in serous danger of defying a history that generally affords a second term.

And their biggest fear is that these numbers rust on, and New Zealand decides they're not up to it and bails permanently next year.