The National Party has climbed to 47 per cent in the latest 1News-Colmar Brunton poll, up 2 percentage points to its highest level of support since coming into Opposition in 2017.
National is now seven percentage points above Labour, who are polling at 40 per cent – down 3 percentage points on the previous 1News-Colmar Brunton poll taken in late July.
The numbers show that National, along with Act, could form a government.
When it comes to seats in Parliament, National alone would have 60 seats; 61 with ACT – enough to form a government.
Labour would have 51 seats; combine with the Greens' eight the two parties would have 59.
The Greens are at 7 per cent and New Zealand First remains below the 5 per cent threshold to 4 per cent – both parties were up 1 percentage point compared to the last poll.
When it comes to the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is at 38 per cent, down 3 points.
The support lost by Ardern was picked up by National Leader Simon Bridges, who jumped 3 percentage points to 9 per cent.
He's clear of senior National MP Judith Collins, on 5 per cent and Winston Peters, who is on 4 per cent.
When it comes to the economy, the poll shows 41 per cent of people have a pessimistic outlook compared to 34 per cent of people who are optimistic.
The numbers will certainly be welcomed by Bridges.
In the 12 Colmar Brunton polls since the election, National has sat between 40 and 45 per cent. It climbed to 46 per cent in late November last year.
But tonight is the first time the party has cracked 47 per cent since it was ousted from government in 2017.
Labour has only reached above 47 per cent twice since entering government.
On election night, Labour received 36.9 per cent of the total vote and National got 44.4 per cent.
Bridges told 1News that the numbers show that Labour talked a big game but New Zealanders aren't seeing any results.
Ardern said there was a number of things the Government has plans to do over the next 12 months.
"I think we will only continue to boost New Zealanders' confidence."
Ardern said that as a Government, their numbers were still strong – "in fact, we're in a better position that when we were elected".
Asked about the preferred Prime Minister results, Bridges said he doesn't read too much into it.
When asked about potential coalition partners, aside from ACT, Bridges said "watch this space".
Ardern said Labour's two support partners, NZ First and the Greens, were "both performing solidly".
Tonight's poll comes just a day after a Newshub-Reid Research poll, which showed both Labour and the Prime Minister's popularity had fallen significantly.
Labour polled at 41.6 per cent, falling 9.2 percentage points compared to the previous Reid Research poll.
Meanwhile, National was up 6.5 per cent to 43.9.
Ardern had dropped 10.6 percentage points to 38.4 per cent in the preferred Prime Minister ranking but was still well ahead of National Leader Simon Bridges on ranking – he jumped 2.5 percentage points to 6.7 per cent.
This is the fifth 1News-Colmar Brunton political poll of the year.