Election 2020: Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins - last day of campaign; Ardern says she'll quit if she loses

PM Jacinda Ardern joined ZM's Fletch, Vaughan & Megan revealing what’s ahead for Labour’s last day of the campaign and a game of political yeah, nah. Video / ZM

Jacinda Ardern has confirmed she would quit politics after losing an election - and doesn't have any ideas for a new career - as she embarks on a final day of campaigning today.

However, the Labour leader won't need to start combing the Situations Vacant section just yet with the latest poll showing her party is within touching distance of governing alone.

Ardern told the last TV leaders' debate last night that she would quit if Labour was to lose the election.

She confirmed this this morning, saying she had never given any thought to a career after politics. But she believed the electorate decided when a politician was finished.

Meanwhile National leader Judith Collins told TVNZ she was really looking forward to having a sleep-in tomorrow morning.

"I'm not going to set the alarm tomorrow morning," she said.

She said there was a sense of relief following the extended election campaign period, coupled with the Covid-19 crisis.

She said she wanted to be the Prime Minister because she wanted to make the most of what our country offered.

"We could be one of the richest little countries in the world," she said.

"I'm staggered that we don't make more here."

Party leaders are planning one final push today to bag as many votes as possible before polling booths close tomorrow night at 7pm.

Labour appears poised for its biggest share of the votes in over 30 years.

Whether it can govern alone will depend on whether its coalition and support partners, New Zealand First and the Greens, make it back to Parliament and in what numbers.

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But Labour looks set to be back on the Government benches for a second term and overseeing the response of a looming economic crisis in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, with $12 billion of the Covid fund unspent or unallocated.

By 2pm yesterday 46 per cent of enrolled voters had voted early.

Ardern has been Labour's single most valuable asset and her management of crises has been the hallmark of her term in office.

She confirmed again this morning that she would leave politics if she did not get back in.

"If you aren't able to bring your party into government, you need to reassess and think who is the best placed to do that," she told TVNZ.

She said she had learned to expect the unexpected and always be prepared for that.

She revealed her go-to person was her family.

Photo / Mark Mitchell

"As politicians it's so important that we remind ourselves that there are other things are going on in their lives. My family, Neve, Clarke, they ground me."

Earlier Ardern told MediaWorks that she was hoping for a "strong mandate" from the electorate but stopped short of saying say wanted Labour to govern alone.

"A strong mandate, a strong mandate," she repeated, adding she'd be keen to form a coalition with as few parties as possible in order to keep it easy.

She conceded she had no Plan B after her political career and had not given it any thought.

Ardern also committed to keeping Kelvin Davis as her deputy leader.

The proudest achievement in the past term was work on child poverty. She said there was still work to do and she was going to give it a good shot to getting it eradicated in the next six years.

Ihumātao was still to be resolved but she was optimistic of finding a settlement, Ardern said.

"There is a solution to this issue. I think we can resolve it without undermining the Treaty. There is a deal to be done there but we haven't been able to do it yet."

Ardern confirmed that partner Clarke Gayford was joining her today for just the second day of the campaign.

National leader Judith Collins told TVNZ said she was really looking forward to having a sleep in tomorrow morning. "I'm not going to set the alarm tomorrow morning," she said.

She said there was a sense of relief following the extended election campaign period, coupled with the Covid-19 crisis.

She said she wanted to be the Prime Minister because she wanted to make the most of what our country offered.

"We could be one fo the richest little countries in the world," she said.

"I'm staggered that we don't make more here."

Asked why she was qualified to run the country she said she brought a world of experience due to her understanding of economics and how to get people into jobs.

On obesity, she said people had to make personal responsibility for their choices.

"Since I've been an adult there's been an entire diet industry telling them there's an easy way to achieving results."

She said it wasn't just poverty but it was about what foods were eaten.

She said fresh fruits and vegetables and in-season food were not an expensive option

Illustration / Rod Emmerson

Labour has been polling close to 50 per cent since Covid-19 was first detected in February, and polled in similar numbers last year in the wake of the mosque massacre.

Last night's Colmar Brunton poll if translated to votes would see Labour as by far the biggest party but needing another party, the Greens, to govern. New Zealand First would be out of Parliament.

The poll put Labour on 46 per cent (down 1 point), National 31 (down 1), Greens 8 (up 2), Act 8 (no change), and New Zealand First 3 (up 1).

The New Conservatives were on 2 (up 1), the Opportunities Party 1 (down 1), Advance NZ 1 (no change), and the Māori Party 1 (up 1).

NZ First Leader Winston Peters campaigning next to his bus in Auckland. Photo / Brett Phibbs

The same poll showed Ardern's popularity as Prime Minister rising in the past week by five points to 55 per cent and National's Judith Collins down three to 20 per cent.

The pair clashed last night for the last time on TV1's debate.

The highest share of the party vote Labour has received in any MMP election since 1996 has been 41.2 per cent in 2002 in its second term in Government – and closest it has got to its current polling of 46 per cent was in the second term of the David Lange Government in 1987 when it got 47.96 per cent.

Ardern spent yesterday visiting the cast and crew of the Mary Poppins musical in a bid to highlight the fact that New Zealand is among the only countries in the world with freedoms under Covid to stage a show.

Green Party co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw at their final rally this week. Photo / Dean Purcell

Broadway, the West End and many of the world theatre districts are under Covid restrictions that don't allow mass gatherings.

Much of the coverage of the closing days of the campaign have television images of Ardern being mobbed in shopping malls and universities.

She will visit several more malls in Auckland today and finish her campaign thanking Labour volunteers.

Judith Collins will thank party volunteers today, then take part in a human hoardings campaign on the North Shore.

National leader Judith Collins with MPs Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop, talking about roads. Photo / Mark Mitchell

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters will finish his epic bus campaign of the country holding a rally in Whangarei, which has been a previous stronghold for New Zealand First votes.

The 3 per cent showing in last night's 1News Colmar Brunton poll is the best his party has had since Covid and puts him within striking distance of the 5 per cent threshold.

But his party looks set to fall short and mark the end of an era.

Act leader David Seymour at a barbecue at Mission Bay in Auckland. Photo / Brett Phibbs

The election campaign has at times seemed endless, mainly because it started then stopped with the second outbreak of Covid.

It was bookended with economic issues.

National's fiscal plan had a $4 billion accounting error, the correction of which pushed out its debt-to-GDP target of 36 per cent out by a year.

And Judith Collins has campaigned relentlessly negatively against the Green Party's wealth tax and her warnings that Labour could be forced to accept it in coalition talks.