Polling has shown that policies were a major drag on the Government’s popularity. Incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni made it clear some projects that “aren’t essential right now” will be shelved to focus on priorities.
The advantage of a personnel change is it offers the chance of owning up to difficulties and repositioning, from what seems to be a clean slate, even though Jacinda Ardern had intended to simplify the Government’s agenda, had she stayed on.
As Hipkins put it: “We’re in a very different position now to what we were in when we campaigned in 2020. Then we were right in the middle of a global pandemic, now we are dealing with the economic aftermath of that. And so that is where our focus really needs to be.”
In the first year of the pandemic, the Government was able to control the political agenda with a clear focus on the different facets of Covid. Jettisoning some of the programmes that have stalled its momentum and muddied its messaging could boost its standing with the public.
But Hipkins is also increasing pressure on himself and his team to deliver against the “pandemic of inflation”, cost of living and other problems worrying Kiwis.
The outlook on inflation is not good. Improvements are in part dependent on what happens overseas. And to actually make a difference in the economy at the supermarket trolley level, the Government will need to come up with fresh initiatives and promote them clearly to the public.
Hipkins is clear about how he intends to operate. He managed to address the issue of co-governance in a straightforward way while drawing National into the debate at the same time.
The handover of power has been smooth. However, still unknown is whether the Labour Party can restore wavering past support in the middle, needed for it to win October’s election.
National is still in the fortunate position of being able to watch the Government deal with its obstacle course from the sidelines, free of responsibilities.
Hipkins has an opportunity to define his opponent, who remains an unknown quantity to most Kiwis after only three years as an MP. Luxon has focused on increasing negativity towards the Government rather than presenting reasons to vote National.
There will likely be more direct competition on the same turf, if Labour more obviously focuses on the squeezed middle, wielding a populism from the left.
In an interview on Monday, Hipkins said: “There are people now working really, really hard, some of them might be working multiple jobs and they’re not feeling that they can get ahead.
“They are contributing enormously to New Zealand and to our prosperity ... We need a tax system that recognises this, that actually makes sure that those who are really striving, who are putting in the hard yards, actually feel the reward for that.”
Relying on public discontent may not be enough for Luxon if Hipkins manages to inject a sense of purpose and optimism while overhauling programmes.
For National, the challenge will be mixing criticism with a more detailed preview of what it would do in power as the year progresses.
