EDITORIAL:
The shifting winds of political support are a continual source of fascination.
Exactly two weeks ago, it was reported National had pulled ahead of Labour in a 1News-Kantar poll for the first time in more than two years, and could form a government with Act if Te Pāti Māori failed to win an electorate seat.
National had surged seven points to 39 per cent to take the lead in the first poll since January.
Labour dropped three points to 37 per cent, the first time National has been ahead of Labour since February 2020, a month before the Covid 19 pandemic tore through the world and New Zealand was plunged into lockdown.
Less than two weeks later, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern finally outlined the picture of life after the present Omicron outbreak.
Suddenly, it seems, the Government has scrapped the limit on outdoor gatherings from tomorrow and revealed the end of vaccine pass use and widely protested mandates for some industries from next month.
The number of people allowed to gather inside also increases from 100 to 200 under the red light traffic setting.
It would be tempting to make a correlation between the regime dismantle and the Government slump in the court of public opinion, even though Ardern has been largely dismissive publicly about polls. "My focus, rather than being on polls, is on people," she said in response to the 1News-Kantar result.
Herald senior political writer Derek Cheng told The Front Page this week, "There's no doubt that public opinion has swung, especially in areas like MIQ where it seemed so unfair that Kiwis couldn't come home unless they won the MIQ lottery.
"And in the latest political poll, we've seen National overtake Labour – and some of that, you would think, is frustration with the Covid response."
Ardern has insisted she was following best scientific and health advice when putting policy decisions to Cabinet. It has long been clear she has sought the least deaths possible as a key facet to her Government's courses of action.
However, it was also clear from very early on that the Omicron variant was impossible to eliminate. Efforts then shifted to slowing outbreaks while allowing more time for the vaccination push. To some degree, these have been successful. Much of the country can see the peak of the outbreak behind us.
Disestablishing the regime of precautions is now an unsurprising step-change as Omicron sweeps through and does what damage it can, predominantly to our under-vaccinated and vulnerable.
Yesterday's announcement was accompanied by a chart showing the course Omicron has taken. It was writ large as the reasoning behind the easing of restrictions.
But Ardern will be aware of the wider picture of how many New Zealanders are "tired" of the fight, and that compliance is necessary for restrictions to be effective.
Surely, polls are intended to provide a sample of public sentiment. Heeding the flagging winds of support may even be considered a trait of leadership.
