Brian Rudman: Win will not give Nats right to sell assets

Labour leader Phil Goff is focusing this week on one issue - state asset sales. Photo / Richard Robinson

A poll-driven government like National will face something of a dilemma if it's returned to power on Saturday. Prime Minister John Key has declared this election is, among other things, a referendum on state asset sales. The $5 billion-$7 billion they're claiming will be raised from the part-sale of four state-owned energy companies and Air New Zealand will be an integral part of their economic growth strategy.

But voters are not buying into this scenario. While overwhelmingly opposed to state asset sales, they've put that issue to one side, preferring to treat Saturday's vote more as a contest between two presidential-like rivals. And here, Mr Key has no rivals.

But the truth is, if he wakes up on Sunday morning, still Prime Minister, Mr Key has to face the fact that most New Zealanders don't want the hydro dams and the geothermal fields and Solid Energy coal fields privatised.

The latest evidence came last week with the release of preliminary results from Massey University's NZ Study of Values Survey 2011, which showed 75.9 per cent of respondents were against "the Government selling off major assets". Only 9.5 per cent were in favour. The survey was sent to 2000 randomly selected registered voters. The results are based on the 43 per cent questionnaires so far returned.

Earlier in the year, a Herald-Digipoll survey recorded 62.6 per cent of voters disapproving of even the minority sell-off that National plans. A recent Research New Zealand poll showed nothing had changed, with 52 per cent "strongly opposed" and remarkably, only 14 per cent in support of the policy.

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No doubt if returned to office, Mr Key and his team will claim they have a mandate from the people to begin the sales process. The opinion poll evidence would beg to differ.

First, National will have to get majority support in Parliament to push through the policy. In the run-up to the 2008 general election, National entered the campaign with poll results showing it had the support of more than 50 per cent of voters. On election night that dropped to around 45 per cent. Pundits say this last-minute fall-off in support for the front-runner could occur again.

This is one reason why National has been working so assiduously to prop up its right wing allies in Act, and United Future's one-man band, Peter Dunne in marginal Ohariu. Both in Ohariu, and in Epsom, where one-time National Cabinet minister John Banks, is masquerading as an Act candidate endeavouring to drag an extra list MP or two in on his coat-tails, National could need these "allies" to push through the privatisation agenda.

For Act, its only objection to National's partial sales proposal is it doesn't go far enough. Mr Dunne, as is his wont, is again astride the fence. "There are some state assets we should never sell," he says on his website, listing as examples, Kiwibank and Radio New Zealand. "Where we do decide assets should be sold, we always have to ensure New Zealand control is retained ..." Presumably that's a nod and a wink to National that he's on side for their partial sales process.

However, with National voters in Ohariu and Epsom, starting to rebel against the "unspoken" direction to vote against the National candidate for the greater good of the party, it is possible National will have no pro-sales allies in the new Parliament.

Their allies in the Maori Party take a confusing stand. Even Monday's statement by co-leader Pita Sharples to "clarify" their stance, was open to interpretation. "While our position is that we oppose the sale of assets, we are also placed with the responsibility of advancing the best position of our constituency ... we need to listen and respond to the proposals our constituents put forward to Parliament."

He said "if iwi decide accordingly, then our position is that the Maori Party will support iwi who wish to invest into state-owned assets ..."

What's not clear is what would happen if a new National Government needed the Maori Party to make up the majority required to begin the sales process. Presumably, the Maori Party would say no if it had the choice. For National, there's nowhere else to turn. Winston Peters and his New Zealand First team are dead against it. That's if they break the 5 per cent barrier and return to Parliament. The Greens and Mana are similarly opposed.

This week, Labour leader Phil Goff is to refocus his campaign on this one issue. That Mr Key and National have endeavoured to play down the subject is a hint the party's pollsters are reporting back the sort of opposition revealed in the media-supported opinion polls. Even if they're returned on Saturday, the overwhelming opposition to asset sales will linger.