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Home / Business

Budget 2020: Grant Robertson rules out capital gains tax, looks to economic growth to get out of debt hole

Tamsyn Parker
By Tamsyn Parker
Business Editor·NZ Herald·
15 May, 2020 05:52 AM4 mins to read

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Finance minister Grant Robertson says the Government will pay down debt through the economy growing. Photo / NZME

Finance minister Grant Robertson says the Government will pay down debt through the economy growing. Photo / NZME

Finance Minister Grant Robertson says New Zealand will pay down its increased debt level - driven by the Government's Covid-19 response - over time as a result of the economy growing.

And it won't be putting a capital gains tax back on the agenda.

Robertson was asked how it would pay down the $50 billion spend up it announced in Thursday's Budget and what impact the debt would have on future generations at a post-Budget ANZ briefing this morning.

"Absolutely there are some tough decisions to be made in the future around the New Zealand economy, just as there are tough decisions to be made right now," he said.

READ MORE:
• Budget 2020: Budget at a glance - the big Covid 19 package and how hard has it hit
• Budget 2020: Government's $50b Covid-19 recovery Budget biggest spending package in history
• Budget 2020: How did it measure up? Five views
• Budget 2020: Live: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Covid 19 recovery and Govt's $50b response: 'It will be painful'

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But Robertson said he would not be going down the austerity route.

"When I look back to the late 80s and early 90s when I saw a different kind of approach to recovery from a downturn, one that was more of an austerity-based one - it was absolutely those young people who bore a lot of the brunt of that.

"I am determined we won't allow that to happen to young people."

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He said the Government's approach was to invest in those young people now through training and job support.

"We will pay that debt down over time, that will be as a result of the economy growing and growing sustainably."

The Government's move to take on high debt levels to cope with Covid-19 has prompted fears of higher taxes and a burden placed on future generations.

Very little mention was made of tax in the Budget. This morning Robertson said tax would likely be a hot topic heading into the election.

"In terms of things around the tax system... that is no doubt going to be a significant debate in the election campaign."

Bruce Bernacchi, KPMG's head of financial services, said he wouldn't be surprised to see more taxes if the current Government was returned at the next election.

Bernacchi said New Zealand would also need to take a hard look at whether aspects such as New Zealand Superannuation were sustainable under the current settings in the future.

"I doubt I am going to get New Zealand Super or the age of eligibility will be pushed out to something with a seven in it."

But he said raising the superannuation age was a political hot potato which he doubted would be addressed ahead of the election.

Bernacchi said the Budget had focused on the next six to 12 months but the reality was the higher debt level would have to be paid back at some point.

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"There are a whole lot of generational wealth issues," he added.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner also raised the issue of intergenerational fairness as one of the challenges New Zealand now faced.

"Young people were already having a tough time because of what had happened to asset prices, particularly housing, and now they are the ones being saddled with this debt."

Zollner said unlike most of the world because of the success of the lockdown New Zealand now had a shot at a "regular horrible recession."

"That is actually something to celebrate."

Zollner said in other countries it was not clear what lockdowns were achieving - whether they were saving lives or just deferring some deaths and if they came out of lockdown would they need to go back into it again.

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"I can't imagine a worse environment for business confidence than that really," she said.

Zollner said New Zealand had its strengths and weaknesses.

"People have to eat. It's a good time to be selling food. There are going to be pockets of shortages."

But she said a big weakness was the reliance on tourism.

"That is the main reason the IMF thought we would be one of the worst affected countries."

She also pointed to high household debt levels. "It not as bad as Australia, but it is still up there where it was in 2007."

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Zollner said many people re-trenched after the global financial crisis and she expected many people to "freak out" about their mortgage this time as well.

As well as the intergenerational wealth issue Zollner said New Zealand faced challenges including selling the huge amount of Government bonds expected to be issued, carrying out cost benefit analysis for infrastructure projects and deciding what borders would look like in the future.

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