Exports up, imports down in March as fruit rebounds from cyclone chaos, ‘big squeeze’ makes companies cautious

Exports were up last month compared to a year earlier - but what was causing imports to fall? Photo / NZME

A rebound in kiwifruit and apple exports after Cyclone Gabrielle’s devastation helped propel New Zealand into a trade surplus in March.

And a huge art shipment drastically altered some of the overseas trade data released today.

Meanwhile, a sluggish economy squashed imports, with an economist worried feeble demand showed companies and consumers were under pressure.

Stats NZ said exports in March were $6.5 billion, well up from $5.9b in February. Imports were down to $5.9b, compared with $6.1b a month earlier.

The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $588 million. It was the first monthly surplus since May 2023 and only the third since May 2022.

Year-on-year, March goods exports were up $240 million and imports were down $1.9b.

Kiwifruit exports last month exceeded a quarter of a billion dollars, up 125 per cent from a year earlier. Apple exports increased 27 per cent year-on-year to $124m.

“They got hammered last year during the storms,” Westpac senior economist Darren Gibbs said of fruit exports.

The industry had to recover from the Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods and especially Cyclone Gabrielle in early 2023.

Earlier this afternoon, Rowena Duncum of The Country told Newstalk ZB the kiwifruit industry was gearing up for a trade deal with the European Union.

Tariffs of 8.8 per cent on kiwifruit exports to the bloc will be eliminated when a New Zealand-EU trade deal takes effect on May 1.

“It’s a huge season for the kiwifruit industry ... nearly 60 ships going across,” Duncum told ZB.

Overall, Gibbs said last month’s exports were better than expected.

Exports to China of logs, wood, and wood articles were up $95 million compared to March 2023, which Gibbs said was surprising and he did not expect to continue given lacklustre demand in China.

But he added: “The real surprise, which is a less positive story, is imports were incredibly weak in March. That tells you something about the state of domestic demand in the economy.”

Huge art shipment

Year-on-year, imports of art and antiques from the European Union were down $187m and overall were down $191m, or 98 per cent.

Philanthropist Julian Robertson with Pablo Picasso's Me're aux enfants a' l'orange (1951). This painting and four other artworks by European masters from Robertson's collection were seen here on show at the Auckland Art Gallery back in 2009. Photo / Richard Robinson

“There was a once-off large import of significant artworks in March 2023, whereas this month marks a return to more typical levels,” a Stats NZ spokeswoman said.

She refused to disclose the details, citing confidentiality, but confirmed Stats NZ stood behind the data as a true measure of imports.

An art dealer said a shipment possibly accounted for as an import in this time was that of Chinese fashion designer Guo Pei, whose work features at Auckland Art Gallery.

But he and another art source also speculated that some of the art the late US philanthropist Julian Robertson donated to New Zealand could have accounted for the data.

The art shipment was described in The Observer as a 15-piece collection including works from Pablo Picasso and Salvador Dali to Paul Cézanne and Paul Gauguin.

Machinery imports down

Imports of Chinese electrical machinery and equipment were down $92m.

Gibbs said overall imports of capital machinery were down more than 20 per cent year-on-year.

That suggested businesses were cautious about investing in hardware and infrastructure.

“We’ve already been seeing it in the GDP numbers of late. It’s completely consistent with ... the business surveys in terms of firms’ intentions to invest.”

Gibbs dubbed the situation “the big squeeze” for business.

GDP shrank in both the September and December quarters. The next Stats NZ GDP data, for the March quarter, is not due until June 20.

Meanwhile, jet fuel imports last month were $123m, down from $240m a month earlier.

‘It’s not so much necessarily a seasonal thing. It’s just more that there are only so many shipments that come in every month,” Gibbs said of jet fuel.

So if just one or two shipments arrived late, that could massively skew the data.

Car imports were strong last year, and with high population growth one might have expected these imports to gain steam, Gibbs said.

Imports of vehicles, parts and accessories were down, despite population growth. Photo / Jason Oxenham

But imports of vehicles, parts, and accessories last month fell $283 million or 28 per cent compared with March 2023.

Stats NZ said a fall in passenger car imports, especially electric vehicles, influenced that.

For the first three months of this year, overall New Zealand exports were 3 per cent higher than for the same period a year before.

“That’s still relatively modest growth, about half a billion of extra exports,” Gibbs said.

He said tight Reserve Bank monetary policy, with the Official Cash Rate at 5.5 per cent, and a flat domestic economy meant import demand was “getting crimped”.

But with more harvesting in horticulture under way now, fruit exports could keep providing some relief to the terms of trade.

“New Zealand’s had a large current account deficit. These figures will be helping to narrow that ... the recovery in tourism is obviously helpful on the services side as well.”

John Weekes, online business editor, has covered court, crime, politics, breaking news and consumer affairs. He covers topics including scams, strikes, retail and macroeconomics.