Consumers price index: ‘Evil’ inflation cooled slightly in late winter and September

Annual inflation fell slightly in late winter and spring - and that could mean no more Reserve Bank rate hikes.

The consumers price index (CPI) was up 1.8 per cent in the September quarter, for an annual rate of 5.6 per cent.

That figure, released just three days after the general election, was below most market expectations.

“We believe today’s numbers significantly reduce the likelihood of any further hikes from the RBNZ,” Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said.

CPI at the previous quarter, ending June 30, was 6 per cent for the year.

At that time, quarterly inflation was only 1.1 per cent compared to the 1.8 per cent reported today.

But the September quarter CPI had to absorb a one-off jolt from the end of the fuel excise, road-user charges and public transport subsidies.

It also took account of local government rate rises. These rates, like fuel, are regarded as volatile or non-core components of inflation.

“Prices are still increasing, but are increasing at rates lower than we have seen in the previous few quarters,” Stats NZ consumers prices senior manager Nicola Growden said today.

Economists at big banks ASB and ANZ had forecast a slight uptick in the September quarter to 6.1 per cent.

Westpac had forecast a 2 per cent quarterly rise, for an annual rate of 5.9 per cent.

Bloomberg Economics had expected a 1.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise for an annual increase of 5.5 per cent.

The New Zealand dollar eased slightly to US59.15c after the Stats NZ release, from US59.28c beforehand.

By late morning, the Kiwi had fallen by about a quarter of a US cent to US59.02c.

Wholesale interest rates were hardly changed, with the two-year swap rate staying at around 5.72 per cent.

Bread and butter inflation

Food was the biggest contributor to inflation.

The CPI data shows how much more - or less - Kiwis paid for everything from food and healthcare to education and transport services.

Stats NZ said the main inflation drivers in the latest quarter were milk, cheese, eggs, bread and cereals.

Milk, cheese and eggs were up 11.5 per cent year-on-year. Bread and cereals were up 11.8 per cent.

“The next largest contributor to the annual increase was housing and household utilities,” Stats NZ said.

“This was due to rising prices for construction and rents.”

Construction prices measured in the CPI went up 5 per cent in the year to September 30. Rent prices increased 4.4 per cent over the same time.

Earlier today

It has been a sticky adversary for politicians and the central bank, and brutal for many shoppers and households.

The Reserve Bank Governor has even called it “evil”.

Although not a perfect measure of inflation, nothing is - and the CPI is widely regarded as the most accurate and comprehensive available measure of inflation.

Despite last week’s news about falling food prices, some economists did not expect the quarterly inflation figures due out today to deliver much respite.

Inflation shot up in autumn 2021 and annual rates of inflation kept rising until June 2022.

Despite some slight declines, the CPI has remained stubbornly high since then.

Several countries have also faced tough inflation challenges, or quirks.

In the United States, consumer prices rose 0.4 per cent last month which, according to CNBC and CNN, was more than analysts had expected.

But in China, deflation and weak consumer demand has been a threat.