Tourism Holdings forecasts $27m-$34m profit amid US market challenges

Tourism Holdings expects its underlying net profit for the 2025 financial year to be at the lower end of analyst expectations as earnings pressure and the US market impact results.

The NZX-listed campervan rental and sales company told the market it expects its underlying net profit for the year to be between $27 million and $34.4m, excluding one-off items and subject to year-end procedures being completed.

The business said the forecast result reflected the challenges impacting global RV sales and, to a lesser extent, the US market.

Tourism Holdings’ manufacturing divisions in Australia and New Zealand are also set to experience a year-on-year earnings decline as volumes decrease because of actions taken to reduce production and total inventory.

The business also gave an update for the 2026 financial year, sharing that the year has started positively with opening net debt of roughly $500m, and a rentals forward book with double-digit percentage growth in rental revenue in all markets except the US.

Forward rental revenue, or future bookings, is roughly 25% higher than it was at the same time last year in both New Zealand and Australia.

In the US, forward rental bookings initially declined by 40%-50% following President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day”.

However, recent booking intakes beyond the current impacted high season have recovered closer to typical levels, with total forward bookings in the US reporting single-digit decline compared to the same time last year, the company said.

As part of its year-end process the business is assessing its asset values for the purpose of impairment testing.

Tourism Holdings identified goodwill of $36m associated with its US business that it expects may require an impairment.

No final decision has been made while the impairment testing process is under way.

There are also several other potential one-off cash items that could impact statutory net profit for the year.

The business said while market conditions remain challenging and performance is at a low point in the cycle, it has been working on a range of initiatives to address those challenges and enhance long-term value for shareholders.

No details on those initiatives were released, although the business expects to be able to update the market in due course.

Last month the business received an unsolicited takeover proposal of $2.30 per share.

A consortium of BGH Capital (BGH) and the family interests of Luke and Karl Trouchet (Trouchet Shareholders) are spearheading a bid to acquire all Tourism Holdings (THL’s) shares, either by way of a scheme of arrangement or a takeover offer.

The non-binding proposal indicates that the consortium is also open to considering a transaction structure which results in a controlling interest but does not result in 100% ownership of THL.

Tourism Holdings told the NZX it would act in what it considers the best interests of the company and its shareholders in assessing the merits of the non-binding proposal.

Its share price was down half a cent to $2.19 in early trading but is up over 21% for the year.

Tom Raynel is a multimedia business journalist for the Herald, covering small business, retail and tourism.