By ANDREW GRICE, RAYMOND WHITAKER and KIM SENGUPTA
LONDON/ISLAMABAD - Tony Blair will warn Afghanistan's Taleban rulers today they will soon pay a heavy price for failing to bow to the ultimatum to hand over Osama bin Laden.
In his clearest signal since last month's terrorist attacks that the United States and Britain are about to launch military strikes in Afghanistan, Mr Blair will tell Labour's annual conference in Brighton: "They [the Taleban] had the chance to surrender the terrorists. They chose not to. We will eliminate their hardware, disrupt their supplies, target their troops."
The Prime Minister's tough words suggest that he believes the ultimatum has now expired and that the Taleban have no intention of handing over Mr bin Laden.
Mr Blair will promise that any action will be "proportionate, and targeted at the military installations and training camps of Osama bin Laden and the Taleban troops, supplies and finances ... We will do what we humanly can to avoid civilian casualties".
The belief that an assault could be imminent grew yesterday when General Pervez Musharraf, the President of Pakistan, which is the Taleban's only remaining ally in the international community, said he believed the Taleban's days were numbered.
The President said conflict was inevitable after the Taleban's defiant announcement on Sunday that they are hiding Osama bin Laden and will not hand him over. "Because of the stand the Taleban have taken ... confrontation will take place," President Musharraf said.
Pressure on the Taleban regime mounted further when the US confirmed that President George Bush has ordered financial support for opposition groups within Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the biggest movement of aircraft and munitions in Britain and America since the Gulf War is under way, amid more signs the first strikes against Afghanistan are just days away.
Last weekend the skies over RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire resounded with the deep roar of giant transporters carrying Cruise missiles and JDAM satellite-guided bombs to forward air bases.
Yesterday, the USS Kitty Hawk left the Yokusara naval base in Japan to join four other aircraft carriers already at battle stations.
It seems increasingly likely that the war will be in two phases, an initial missile, bomb and limited special forces attack against Taleban forces and Osama bin Laden's al-Qa'ida network.
Then, after a pause, there will be a bigger, wider conflict with the orchestration of intelligence, special forces and air power from land and sea.
Much of the intelligence for this has already been obtained, from both predictable and surprising sources. The Russians provided details of the former mujahedin fortifications now being used by the Taleban and al-Qa'ida. Intelligence has also come from Pakistan, India and friendly Arab states.
The Independent has also learned that vital information has been provided by Syria, a "terrorist state" in the lexicon of some in the Pentagon.
The rationale behind the two-phased approach is to ensure that the Taleban forces are "provided with a disincentive" to help al-Qa'ida when attacks begin on their bases.
Neutralising the Taleban will also be of great help to the Northern Alliance, which the West is now hastily sponsoring, but with grave doubts about its military and political capabilities.
The Alliance is in the process of receiving more Russian and Iranian arms, but not soon enough, it is felt, to have any discernible effect in the immediate course of the civil war.
Taleban armour and aircraft are expected to be the first targets to be hit. Their armour consists of a few captured and abandoned Soviet tanks, mainly old T52s, and armoured cars. They also have around 130 multiple rocket launchers and about 20 Scud and Frog surface-to-surface missiles. The anti-aircraft defence is composed of Stinger hand-held missiles, supplied by the US during the days when the Afghans were "freedom fighters", and Soviet SAM missiles.
The Taleban air force consists of about 19 old Soviet Migs and helicopters, although some are known to be cannibalised to keep the others flying. The aircraft were flown, until now, by Pakistanis.
The Taleban forces are preparing for war and moving their heavy weapons to the hills. The military planners in Washington and London believe this is the ideal time to catch them out on the open, before they reach the mountain hideouts.
Taleban land forces are also vulnerable and exposed at present, none more so than about 15,000 soldiers who have been massed at the Pakistani border near Peshawar and Quetta.
There are other reasons advocated for a quick strike against the Taleban. Being on the receiving end of a Western attack would, it is thought, allow Mullah Omar "to recant" over his refusal to hand over Mr bin Laden. The time needed to mount the second phase will be described as the period they have to deliver him, or face further punishment.
The bombing attacks will be accompanied by a "hearts and minds propaganda campaign" to further destabilise the Taleban. Leaflets will be dropped into the country, and Taleban radio broadcasts jammed. Areas which come under the control of the Northern Alliance will receive large amounts of food aid.
Allied forces are now poised to carry out this first phase of this mission. British and American special forces are already inside Afghanistan gathering intelligence. They will guide in attack aircraft as well larger units of combat troops.
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Map: Opposing forces in the war against terror