Shifting sands of war shape leaders

Ehud Olmert

JERUSALEM - "The boss-man's gone berserk!" That's how Israeli market hawkers announce their end-of-day blowout sales.

It's also the phrase confidants of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert say he used when ordering the Lebanese offensive in response to a deadly border ambush by Hizbollah.

His message seemed clear: Israel would unleash its mighty military on guerrillas who killed and kidnapped its troops on July 12. It would be a show of force designed to rattle the region and warn Hizbollah's Syrian and Iranian backers to keep out.

There was a more personal payoff too. Olmert, a career bureaucrat, is seen as keen to burnish his combat credentials for any future showdown with Palestinians over the West Bank.

But with the Lebanese civilian toll spiralling, foreign support for Israel sapped, Hizbollah raining rockets on the Jewish state, and no sign of two captive soldiers, doubts are quietly being raised at home about Olmert's strategy.

"He's been acting like a bull that got kicked in the balls," said a security source privy to the war planning.

For most of the three-week-old campaign, Olmert stood firm on pressing the offensive. He was buoyed by broad backing among the Israeli public and pundits, as well as the tacit approval he perceived from the United States and some European allies.

That changed after an Israeli bomb killed 54 civilians in the Lebanese village of Qana on Sunday. Under pressure from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Olmert agreed to curb such air strikes, apparently without first consulting his top brass.

One newspaper predicted that Olmert would "fold", recalling how former Prime Minister Shimon Peres called off a similar offensive against Hizbollah in 1996 after an errant Israeli artillery shell killed more than 100 refugees in Qana. But Olmert sprang back the next day with a televised speech reiterating that Israel would fight on in the "air, sea and land" until Hizbollah was vanquished.

Some commentators discerned a tone of "Churchillian" resolve. Others were less impressed.

"His words were forceful but conveyed a certain ambiguity about the goals of the offensive," wrote Yossi Verter in the left-leaning Haaretz daily. "The public is still behind him and the Government but question marks are popping up all over and there is a noticeable change in the air."

Olmert was propelled to power in January when Ariel Sharon, an Army ex-general twice elected on the memory of his battlefield exploits, was felled by a stroke.

During his first months in office, Olmert would respond to minor crises by pondering aloud: "What would Arik [Sharon] do?" The question has come back to haunt him over the Lebanon campaign.

Gerald Steinberg of Israel's Bar-Ilan University suggested Sharon would have ordered a ground sweep of Lebanon to hit Hizbollah hard at the outset, whereas Olmert has largely relied on air power to avoid the appearance of a military occupation.

Another veteran Sharon observer, Ben Caspit of the Maariv newspaper, took a different tack. He said the former Prime Minister, realising the limitations of military force against a homegrown Lebanese guerrilla group, would have struck a deal.

Sharon was also hobbled diplomatically by the fact that, as Israeli Defence Minister in 1982, he masterminded an invasion of Lebanon that culminated in his resignation in disgrace after allied Christian militiamen slaughtered Palestinian refugees.

"I think Sharon would have ordered a few days of strikes against choice Hizbollah targets in south Lebanon and Beirut, and then entered back-channel negotiations on a prisoner swap," Caspit said.

He noted that such a trade, mediated by Germany, took place between Israel under Sharon and Hizbollah in 2004.

Caspit suggested Olmert's lack of an army pedigree paradoxically empowered him to wage an uncompromising campaign.

"This Prime Minister is not enamoured of all the old warrior myths, like the one about never abandoning our soldiers in the field," he said.

"He's a scrapper, not a little pompous, and good at pulling off dramatic moves.

"Like the lawyer he once was, his strategy is to come in with a tough opening bid, and make sure he comes out with a settlement that works in his favour." Caspit said.

- REUTERS