A woman walks out from a residential building which was hit by a Russian rocket, in the city centre of Kharkiv, Ukraine. Photo / AP
A woman walks out from a residential building which was hit by a Russian rocket, in the city centre of Kharkiv, Ukraine. Photo / AP
Russia has prepared almost 2000 tanks and 300,000 soldiers for a renewed offensive to seize Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in the coming weeks, a Ukrainian intelligence officer has warned.
The attack is expected to be bolstered by thousands more armoured vehicles, artillery systems, as well as hundreds of fighter jetsand helicopters.
For weeks, Ukrainian officials have warned of a pending Russian offensive in a bid by the Kremlin to regain the initiative after months of stalemate on the battlefield.
The attack is expected to coincide with the one-year anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s launch of his full-scale invasion on February 24.
Amid a surge in fighting, military analysts have claimed the long-awaited Russian offensive has already started and is expected to accelerate as the symbolic date approaches.
People receive bread and milk at a humanitarian aid at a distribution spot in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine. Photo / AP
‘A huge invasion expected’
“We expect in the next 10 days a new, huge invasion,” a Ukrainian military official told the Foreign Policy news website.
Ukrainian military intelligence believes that Russia now has more than 300,000 troops inside the country, almost double the amount that were amassed on its borders before the start of the war, the official added.
The Russian military has also prepared 1800 tanks, 3950 armoured vehicles, 2700 artillery systems, 810 soviet-era multi-launch rocket systems, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters for the fresh offensive, according to estimates made by Kyiv.
“It’s much bigger than what took place in the first wave,” the official said. “They don’t pay attention to any casualties or losses on the [battlefield].”
If correct, the estimates could mean Russia has more tanks than it originally entered Ukraine with.
General Valery Gerasimov, who was last month appointed by the Kremlin as overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, is expected to focus attempts on capturing the remaining Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Kyiv has desperately appealed for its Western allies to accelerate weapons deliveries in anticipation of Moscow launching vast waves of attacks to overwhelm defensive positions.
Until now, Russian forces have only managed to secure incremental gains around Bakhmut, in Donetsk, at the cost of tens of thousands of troops, and Kreminna in neighbouring Luhansk.
An undertaker walks by the Alley of Heroes at the Irpin Cemetery in Ukraine. Photo / AP
‘There is continuous firing’
This week Serhii Haidai, the regional governor of Luhansk, said Russia had launched a major offensive in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defences near Kreminna.
He told Ukrainian television that Russian troops were trying to push westwards through snow-covered forests.
“These attacks are practically a daily occurrence. We see small groups of Russian soldiers trying to advance, sometimes with the support of heavy armour – infantry fighting vehicles and tanks – and sometimes not. There is continuous firing,” Haidai said.
He claimed however that Russian forces “haven’t had any success”, as Ukraine’s troops held out against the onslaught.
Soldiers carry the coffin of Eduard Strauss, a Ukrainian serviceman who died in combat. Photo / AP
Highly trained divisions sent into Luhansk
Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia had likely regained the initiative in Luhansk after pouring several highly trained divisions into the area.
“The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains,” ISW said in its daily report.
Svatove and Kreminna were originally captured by Moscow last spring, before being won back last year during the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
The 90th tank division, one of Moscow’s most illustrious military units, was said to be involved in the fighting, in a sign the Kremlin has shifted away from using mercenaries from the Wagner Group to seize Ukrainian territory.
Formations from the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics are also being sidelined in favour of more conventional forces by Moscow, ISW reported.
