Even John Howard's sternest critics conceded that he had an uncanny ability to gauge the public mood. It has become clear that Tony Abbott lacks that gift, or has yet to develop it.
A dripfeed of stories aimed at softening Australians up ahead of last night's bad news Budget onlyserved to heighten their anger and dismay. There was widespread scepticism, moreover, about the main message conveyed by Abbott and his Treasurer Joe Hockey: that the economy was in dire straits and everyone had to share the pain required to fix it.
This was not just about people being reluctant to take a financial hit - although, interestingly, public outrage about the "deficit levy" subsided somewhat following reports that it would apply only to those earning more than A$180,000 ($195,130), equating to just over 4 per cent of the population. It was also about a confected crisis.
Voters are well aware that while growth may be slowing as the mining boom peters out, the Australian economy remains the envy of much of the developed world. Growth is still relatively high and unemployment relatively low. Government debt is triple A-rated, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 20 per cent.
So why confect a crisis? For one thing, the Coalition is locked into this narrative, having peddled it so often and so loudly while in Opposition. Plus, it can't resist having yet another go at preceding Labor Governments, whose allegedly profligate spending is blamed for getting Australia into such a mess. The main driver, though, surely, is ideological, with Abbott and his ministers determined to drive through a conservative slash-and-burn agenda, aimed at shrinking the public service, cutting social programmes and reducing the role of government in Australians' lives.
What's striking is how poorly they sold the proposed reforms. "Tony's debt wish" thundered the Daily Telegraph last week, while the Australian's headlines included "Coalition complicit in fiscal time bombs" and "Broken promises a disaster for PM".
This from two Murdoch papers which, previously, were almost slavishly supportive. Abbott's last-minute announcement that federal politicians will have their own salaries frozen did little to mollify these new critics. The Australian called it "a stunt", while the Sunday Telegraph greeted it as "finally, a Budget cutback that doesn't totally stink". Raising the retirement age to 70, a $7 fee for seeing a GP, a rise in petrol excise duty - it was hard to pick the least popular policies. Labor was four to 10 points ahead in three opinion polls last week.
The best the Government can hope for is another big story to knock the Budget off front pages. Any chance of a round two, Packer and Gyngell?
