Greg Ansley: Ticking clock dilutes delight

COMMENT


CANBERRA - Even as Prime Minister John Howard was sitting down to breakfast the morning after his stunning victory over Labor's Mark Latham in Saturday's Australian election, speculation was rife over whether he would now retire.

On the other side of Sydney, Latham, whose campaign led to a crushing defeat that pruned his numbers in the House of Representatives and could see a Liberal Government controlling the Senate for the first time in 20 years, was facing questions on his own future.

Neither leader is in imminent danger of being tipped out of his job.

But over the next three years pressure will increase on both men as the Government runs harder against the "it's time" factor with a Prime Minister rapidly heading towards his 70th birthday, and as Labor frustration mounts at a decade and a half in the wilderness.

For the moment, Howard's stature is immense: a fourth straight victory, with an increased majority and the chance of being able to pass reforms through a tame Upper House.

But Howard at 65 is, inevitably, living in his political twilight.

Last year he did consider retiring and handing leadership to his deputy and Treasurer, Peter Costello, but baulked and decided to stay on.

The expectation now is that he will wait 18 months or so and pass the baton to Costello in time for the next election.

But many suspect Howard will be unable to give power away, relying on his own sense of the party's mood to again frustrate the transfer of leadership to 47-year-old Costello.

Costello could simply quit, but his supporters would urge a challenge - regardless of the assurances Costello made during the campaign.

For the moment, Costello refuses to add to speculation that this may be Howard's last election, saying only that he expects to present the next Budget as Treasurer.

Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane sidestepped the issue, telling Channel Nine Howard was "clearly focussed on the future".

Latham's position seems secure for the moment. Senior party figures yesterday rallied around, noting that he had only 10 months to make himself known to Australia and prepare for the election.

Former leader Kim Beazley said that before Latham took over internal party polling predicted Labor could lose up to 25 seats, and that Saturday's result put the party in position for a good strike at the next election.