KEY POINTS:
Why is opium production rising in Afghanistan, and can it be stopped? Why are we asking this now?
Nato and the United States are ramping up the war on drugs in Afghanistan. American ground forces are set to help guard poppy eradication teams for the first time
later this year, while Nato's defence ministers agreed to let their 50,000-strong force target heroin laboratories and smuggling networks.
Until now, going after drug lords and their labs was down to a small and secretive band of Afghan commandos, known as Taskforce 333, and their mentors from Britain's Special Boat Service. Eradicating poppy fields was the job of specially trained, but poorly resourced, police left to protect themselves from angry farmers. All that is set to change.
How big is the problem?
Afghanistan is by far and away the world's leading producer of opium. Opium is made from poppies, and it is used to make heroin. Heroin from Afghanistan is smuggled through Pakistan, Russia, Iran and Turkey until it ends up on Europe's streets.
Poppy was grown over 157,000ha in Afghanistan this year, producing 7700 tonnes of opium. Production has soared to such an extent in recent years that supply is outstripping demand. In 2007, the United Nations calculated that Afghan opium farmers made about US$1 billion ($1.6 billion) from their poppy harvests. The total export value was US$4 billion - or 53 per cent of Afghanistan's GDP.
Is it getting better or worse?
There was a 19 per cent drop in cultivation from 2007 to 2008, but bumper yields meant opium production only fell by 6 per cent. Only 3.5 per cent of the country's poppy fields were eradicated in 2008. High wheat prices and low opium prices are also a factor in persuading some farmers to switch to licit crops.
How are the drugs linked to the insurgency?
The Taleban control huge swaths of Afghanistan's countryside, where most of the poppies are grown. They tax the farmers 10 per cent of the farm gate value of their crops.
Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said the Taleban made about £50 million ($140 million) from opium in 2007. The UN and Nato believe the insurgents get roughly 60 per cent of their annual income from drugs.
The Taleban and the drug smugglers also share a vested interest in undermining President Hamid Karzai's Government, and fighting the international forces, which have both vowed to try and wipe out the opium trade.
What about corruption?
The vast sums of drugs money sloshing around Afghanistan's economy mean it is all too easy for the opium barons to buy off corrupt officials.
Most policemen earn about £80 a month. A heroin mule can earn £100 a day carrying drugs out of Afghanistan.
Most Afghans suspect the corruption reaches the highest levels of government. Karzai is reported to have called eradication teams to halt operations at the last minute for no apparent reason.
When an Afghan counter-narcotics chief found nine tonnes of opium in a former Helmand governor's compound, he was told to not burn it by Kabul but he claims he ignored the order.
President Karzai's brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, is widely rumoured to be involved in the drugs trade - an allegation he denies.
The New York Times claimed US investigators found evidence that he had ordered a local security official to release an "enormous cache of heroin" discovered in a tractor trailer in 2004. Privately, Western security officials admit they suspect that many government ministers are drug dealers.
Where does that leave the world community?
The progress promised in 2001 hasn't been delivered. Education is a rare success. But the roads which link the country's main cities aren't safe. Taleban roadblocks are increasingly normal. UN convoys are getting hijacked.
A report published by 100 charities at the end of July warned violence has hit record highs, fighting is spreading into parts of the country once thought safe, and there have been an unprecedented number of civilian casualties this year.
General David McKiernan, the US commander of almost all the international forces in Afghanistan, insisted yesterday that Nato isn't losing. The fact he had to say it suggests public perception is otherwise.
Crime in the capital, Kabul, is rising. The Taleban broke 400 insurgents out of Kandahar jail this northern summer, and they attacked the provincial capital in Helmand last weekend. People are frustrated at the world community's failures and scared that the Taleban are coming back.
What does that mean for the future?
President Karzai has touted peace talks with the Taleban through Saudi intermediaries. The world maintains it will support the Afghan Government in any negotiations, but privately diplomats admit that if they opened talks tomorrow they would not start from a "perceived position of strength".
General David Petraeus is about to take command at CentCom, which includes Afghanistan, and he is expected to focus on churning out more Afghan soldiers and engaging tribes against the insurgents.
Meanwhile, in Pakistan, it remains to be seen whether President Asif Ali Zardari will rein in his intelligence service and crack down on the Taleban safe havens in the Pakistani tribal areas.
There are also elections on the horizon. The world is determined that they must go ahead and anything the Afghan candidates do should be seen in the context of securing people who can deliver votes.
- INDEPENDENT
