Hurricane Melissa has made landfall as a Category 5 storm - tying for the strongest hurricane landfall on record in the Atlantic basin.
The storm came ashore in southwestern Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 297km/h, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm’s eye struck in New Hope - roughly 120km west of the capital, Kingston.
It was expected to cross the island over a period of six hours. About an hour later, with its maximum winds slightly weaker, the storm was crossing the western part of the island nation.
The storm’s central air pressure reached 892 millibars – a sign of incredible intensity – making it the third-strongest Atlantic storm on record by this metric. Air pressure measures how much the atmosphere weighs above a given point – and in hurricanes, lower pressure means the air is rushing inward and upward with more force, driving stronger winds.
It is unusual for a storm to be at peak strength as it comes ashore.
It’s going to be “a very dangerous scenario now starting to play out” as the eye of Melissa moves across Jamaica Tuesday, National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan said.
That is expected to include “total building failures” and “catastrophic wind damage” – with gusts up to 320km in places of higher topography.
Kingston’s business district, usually a hub of buzzing activity on weekday mornings, now looks deserted. Orange Street sees near-constant gridlock traffic, but on Tuesday was near empty. Major buildings including the Jamaica Stock Exchange and the Bank of Jamaica were all shuttered.
Parking lots are empty and police cars are among the few vehicles still driving, maintaining a strong presence, particularly in the business capital, to preserve order and prevent any chance of looting.
Still, some residents have braved the winds and rain to snap pictures of the rising tide in parts of Kingston Harbour.
There was a sharp decline in internet connectivity along the west coast of Jamaica, as winds brought down power lines, according to NetBlocks, which tracks internet outages.
In anticipation, officials have been urging people to store water and clear any rubbish from gullies and drains.
On Monday afternoon, one government minister, Desmond McKenzie, expressed concern that too few people were pre-emptively evacuating to shelters, especially in parishes along the predicted hurricane path.
“The numbers are very low,” said McKenzie, who projected that 50,000 Jamaicans would have to relocate.
By late Monday, around 133 of the 880 designated emergency shelters were open and housing displaced people.
Christopher Tufton, Jamaica’s health minister, confirmed three deaths and 13 injuries across the country as of Monday, associated with people preparing for the storm.
By late Monday, about 133 of the 880 designated emergency shelters were open and housing displaced people.
Humanitarian relief groups have been busy making preparations for their response.
Pre-positioning humanitarian supplies has been key for the World Food Program, said Brian Bogart, World Food Program Caribbean multi-country office country director. Access to move food and relief supplies to affected communities will be a massive challenge as infrastructure, transportation and logistics capacity are impacted, said Bogart, who was speaking from Kingston.
In neighbouring Haiti, where the storm moved near its southern peninsula, Melissa has already inflicted damage. Haiti officials confirmed three weather-related fatalities last week, with 450 homes flooded and 10 others damaged. At least 3653 people have been displaced and are currently sheltering in temporary accommodations.
Powerful winds and heavy rains swept through multiple municipalities, submerging roads in the hardest-hit areas and sustaining significant damage on the agricultural sector, which was already in crisis.
As international donors have pull back from Haiti, many humanitarian organizations have reported sharp reductions in funding, jeopardizing their ability to respond effectively in the hardest-hit areas. Normally, ahead of hurricane season, WFP would have around 3,000 metric tons of food stockpiled in Haiti - enough to feed 200,000 people for a month. But in the heavily affected southern region, only 450 metric tons are currently available.
“Our teams are on the ground and preparing to begin distributions, but this isn’t our usual level of readiness,” said Tanya Birkbeck, a WFP spokesperson, told The Post.
With the storm closing in from the southern coast of Jamaica’s main island, the outlook remains grim. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said he had “been on my knees in prayer,” and he gave a dire prediction of what might come: roofs sheared from homes, roads inundated, infrastructure destroyed.
“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” he said. “There’s going to be damage if there is a Category 5.”
Melissa fits a pattern of more-intense hurricanes in recent history compared with the past.
With the forward speed increasing and the very small size of the eye, winds and dangerous conditions will pick up very quickly as the backside of the eye moves through, he said. Heavy rains are expected, producing “catastrophic, life-threatening flooding” and landslides.
The predicted storm surge – up to 3.9m – poses a grave threat because most of Jamaica’s cities sit along the coast. The surge could also threaten Jamaica’s beachside resorts and undermine a tourism industry that accounts for about one-third of its domestic economy.
As Melissa intensified rapidly in warmer-than-usual Caribbean waters, Leanne Archer, a research associate in climate extremes at the University of Bristol, said the storm “could be the most devastating hurricane to ever hit Jamaica”.
“Hurricane Melissa is yet another stark reminder that islands such as Jamaica face the brunt of accelerating extremes amplified by climate change, despite being among those who are the least responsible for the problem,” she said.
After crossing Jamaica, Melissa is expected to weaken slightly, but it’s predicted to be a powerful Category 3 storm when it hits southeastern Cuba from Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Hurricane warnings cover the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Las Tunas.
From Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, the storm is expected to lash central and southeastern Bahamas – where Melissa may make its third landfall in fewer than three days – before it accelerates into the North Atlantic.
The storm is forecast to pass near Bermuda early Friday, bringing strong winds, squally rain and dangerous seas.
The United States isn’t expected to be fully spared, either. Moisture from Melissa will probably fuel a separate storm tracking from the Mid-Atlantic to New England on Thursday and Friday, with a period of rain and wind expected in major eastern cities.
When passing south and east of Atlantic Canada, what’s left of Melissa is expected to be shredded by the jet stream in the North Atlantic over the weekend, finally ending the historic storm’s almost two-week journey.
No storms immediately loom after Melissa. The Atlantic hurricane officially ends after November 30, after which chances of intense storms drop significantly.