Ankara digs deeper into strife

The Turkish Government's policy of "zero problems with neighbours" is in need of urgent recalculation as neighbourly relations give way to threats from Ankara on several fronts.

Besides turning its wrath on Israel - not a neighbour but a former close ally - it warned Cyprus last month it would take "appropriate action" if Nicosia pursued its plan to undertake oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean.

Such an undertaking, said Ankara, ignored the rights of the Turkish part of the divided island. This drew a quick response from Cyprus' patron, Greece, which said it not only stood behind Cyprus but that it would undertake oil exploration itself in disputed waters of the Aegean Sea despite Turkey's long-standing objection.

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, formulator of the "zero problems" policy, warned another neighbour, Syria, last month to halt its violent suppression of demonstrators immediately. Otherwise, he said, "there would be nothing more to discuss about steps that would be taken". There have been unofficial hints from Turkey these steps could include military action.

A resumption of violence by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on Turkey's southeast border has brought renewed Turkish air strikes against PKK camps in northern Iraq after a relatively long period of calm. There is concern in Baghdad that Turkey might try to repeat its 2008 ground incursion into northern Iraq.

But it is the squabble with Israel that has taken centre stage with Turkey downgrading its diplomatic relationship with Israel and severing their once extensive military and security ties.

The cause of Turkey's anger was Israel's refusal to apologise for the killing of nine Turkish citizens last year during the boarding of the flagship of a Turkish civilian flotilla bearing humanitarian aid to Gaza.

The Hurriyet Daily News quoted a Turkish official as saying that Turkish naval vessels will in future escort civilian ships carrying aid to the Gaza Strip as part of "a more aggressive strategy". Should that happen, a confrontation with the Israeli Navy is almost certain since Israel has declared its determination to uphold its naval blockade of Gaza to prevent rockets and other armaments from being smuggled in.

An implied threat may also have been made by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan this year during a visit to Lebanon when he said if Israel again invades Lebanon "we will not remain silent".

What has infuriated the Turkish leadership over the past week is the report by a United Nations panel headed by former Prime Minister Sir Geoffrey Palmer which found the Israeli blockade of Gaza and its boarding of the Turkish flotilla on the high seas to be legal under international law.

This destroys Ankara's central thesis - that the Israeli Navy was acting like pirates in violation of international law.

The Palmer report criticised Israel for the use of "excessive and unreasonable force", although it grants that the commandos were obliged to protect themselves against violent attack. Israel denies the force used was excessive but officials in Jerusalem acknowledge the navy bungled the operation by lowering the commandos from a helicopter on to a deck filled with militants armed with metal staves and knives.

Erdogan laid down three conditions for the restoration of full diplomatic relations with Israel - an apology, payment of compensation to families of the dead and an end to the Gaza blockade.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was willing to pay compensation and has publicly expressed sorrow for the deaths of the nine. He refused to apologise for the commandos resorting to gunfire although at one point he was willing to consider apologising for "operational mistakes".

However, Erdogan's demand for an end to the Gaza blockade signalled to Jerusalem that he was not seeking an equitable end to the dispute. He was using it instead to enhance Ankara's Neo-Ottoman strategy aimed at re-establishing Turkey as a regional super power able to impose its will.

The last thing Israel needs is another enemy. And the closure of Turkey to Israeli defence exporters is a serious economic blow. But the loss of Israeli know-how is a serious blow as well to Turkey which was eager to receive its reconnaissance drones used against the PKK and other advanced equipment, for which Israel also provided maintenance.