Even before the Reds upset the Chiefs on Saturday night in Townsville, Leon MacDonald spoke with caution about the defining match of the Blues' Super Rugby Transtasman campaign.
MacDonald knows a short turnaround for Friday's trip to Brisbane, injuries to key personnel - namely All Blacks loose forward Dalton Papalii- and the need to freshen up his squad after three straight outings culminates in a match that could determine whether the Blues reach the Sky transtasman final or not.
As it stands the Blues, following three bonus-point victories, the latest the dominant 38-10 win over the Brumbies at Eden Park, are in the box seat to make amends for their disappointing Aotearoa season by reaching the transtasman finale.
After the Reds, the Blues host the battling Force, who suffered a record 43-6 loss to the Hurricanes, at Eden Park to complete the round robin.
This week the Reds are sure to be buoyed after clinging on break Australia's 13-match duck against New Zealand teams.
Despite the Chiefs being reduced to 13 men after Damian McKenzie's first-half red card the Reds were almost run down at the death, eventually holding on 40-34 after leading 33-3 at halftime.
Prior to that result, MacDonald was wary of the challenge this week posed for his men on a number of fronts.
"I know what they'll bring because you watch them and you can see Brad Thorn's influence," MacDonald said of the Super Rugby AU champions. "They're a passionate team and they'll play with a lot of heart. They're the champs and when they get it right, they're dangerous."
After watching Papalii immediately impress in his first start back from a medial ligament injury, MacDonald held fears the standout openside had tweaked the same knee in his 80-minute effort against the Brumbies.
Dalton Papalii in action for the Blues. Photosport
Lock Josh Goodhue is also unlikely to feature after injuring his ankle, which should pave the way for captain Patrick Tuipulotu to regain his starting role with Sam Darry likely to come into the squad.
"Dalton has had an outstanding year. He looked a bit sore again now which is a bit of a worry," MacDonald said. "Hopefully he's okay. Bonus points are crucial and they were bashing away and he got a turnover midway through that second half that allowed us to exit and put pressure back on them. He makes big plays, he's always on the ball, his defensive work is outstanding. He leads a bit of passion in the team when he's on the park we have a lot more belief."
Changes for the Reds elsewhere appear certain, too, as MacDonald attempts to strike the right balance late in the season. All Blacks prop Nepo Laulala and Akira Ioane could be promoted from the bench, while playmaker Stephen Perofeta has been left to play club rugby in recent weeks.
"You normally see teams starting to dip after four matches so it's about making enough changes to keep us energised but not too many that we lose cohesion," MacDonald said. "At the moment we're playing with some good cohesion – the backs and forwards are complementing each other well so they're the big decisions we'll have to make. There's going to be some forced changes, and there might be a couple of others to make sure we bring some good energy."
MacDonald reserved praise for halfback Finlay Christie after he defended superbly and beat four defenders in his try just before halftime following a Rieko Ioane break.
"It's been a slow start, he came back with a neck injury and that affected his pass. Now that's well and truly behind him he's full of confidence. He's busy, his speed to the breakdown is exceptional and generally his decision-making is good. He's a hard worker. It's good to see him get the rewards, he's really establishing himself as a quality nine."
Brumbies coach Dan McKellar lamented his side's 31 missed tackles and 19 turnovers in their third successive defeat. The Brumbies have gone backwards in the past two weeks after missing a sideline conversion to draw with the Crusaders in the opening round.
After three tough weeks on the road, McKellar acknowledged the gap between the two nations but as the Brumbies return home to host the Hurricanes and Highlanders he stressed the need for Australia to embrace, not run from, the challenge.
"There's definitely a gulf isn't there? I'd be sitting up here talking rubbish if you didn't recognise that," McKellar said. "The New Zealand teams have had the competition where they've gone hard at each other and played at, or close to, test match intensity.
"The Australian teams have struggled to face that so there's a gap there at the moment which probably wasn't there at the beginning of 2020 when we were over here and had success. At that stage our squad was in pretty good shape. I don't think we've got the depth across five teams when a lot of the teams are dealing with significant injuries.
"We're certainly not shying away from the challenge. Even before the competition started we were a team that put our hand up to play all five New Zealand teams, not mix and match. We've got to get better."
