Super Rugby Pacific: Quarter-final efforts of Reds and Fijian Drua show they’re on the right track

The Reds stunned the Chiefs at Yarrow Stadium earlier in the season. Photo / Getty

OPINION:

After 14 qualifying games and one playoff round, the same four teams that made the semifinals of Super Rugby Pacific 2022 are there again in 2023.

The order of who plays who has been shuffled, but when seven of the last eight teams this year were the same as seven of the last eight last year, it’s apparent Super Rugby Pacific doesn’t do surprises.

But while the playoffs ended up looking remarkably similar this year to how they did last, there were at least promising signs over the weekend that the next few years may see the competition evolve into something more compelling.

The Reds were the team that did most to suggest that they could become a semi-serious contender.

They turned up in New Plymouth a few weeks ago and beat the Chiefs and came a lot closer to doing so again than anyone predicted.

There is something there to build on, a bit of grit, honesty and determination at the core of the team that says they are on to something.

So too have they got youth in the right positions. But what’s hard to know is how long the process of conversion is going to take.

As well as they played against the Chiefs, they were blown off the park by the Drua, Blues and Brumbies and with that level of performance fluctuation, it’s hard to believe the Reds will be champions next year.

Their timeline to come good is more likely three-to-five years, as it is with the Drua, who are the competition’s other beacon of promise.

They were sensational when they played in Fiji, but their results away from home illustrated that they are still coming to grips with many high-performance basics.

The Reds and Drua at least hold the promise of coming good, unlike the Waratahs, who seem condemned to forever be trapped in a pattern of one step forward, two back.

The Western Force and Rebels don’t appear to have any kind of trajectory at all – neither growing nor regressing, and a similar fate may now await the Highlanders and Moana, because New Zealand has probably condemned itself with the same problem as Australia of operating more teams for which it has adequate playing resources.

There is a quick-fix solution to this issue of the same five clubs dominating each year, which is to cut the number of teams from 12 to 10.

But as both New Zealand and Australia are committed to maintaining the status quo and persevere with 12 teams, they are going to have to consider other means to try to fast-track the development of the competition’s perennial stragglers.

What’s clear is that doing nothing is not an option. The craziest stat to come out over the weekend is that no Australian team has won a playoff game in New Zealand, and if the competition is going to thrive, that must change.

The Brumbies will be out to make history in the semis. Photo / Getty

Broadcast audiences for the big games in New Zealand have bounced back this year close to the historic highs of Super Rugby’s heydays of the mid-2000s, but it’s hard to believe these figures will be sustained if the next few years keep churning out the same four semifinalists.

Also, Super Rugby Pacific is a joint venture and if it’s going to return to the glory days of old, it needs the metrics to be equally healthy in Australia, and the only way that’s going to happen is if there are more heavyweight contenders winning.

A player draft, as floated by Rugby Australia boss Hamish McLennan, if well-considered, is an idea worth investigating.

It can’t just be a smash and grab tool for Australia to nick New Zealand’s best and give up developing their own talent.

A change to allow New Zealanders to be All Blacks eligible if they play for Australian clubs and vice versa is now a non-negotiable, as is cutting the playoffs back to six teams next year – a move that may not rebalance the competition, but will create tension, drama and storylines at both ends of the table.

If everyone wants 12 teams, they have to not only move existing players about, but increase the overall talent pool.

Which might sound fanciful and unrealistic in a labour market skewed heavily in favour of the Japanese and Europeans, but New Zealand has completed a private equity deal and Australia is close to doing so.

Some of that cash could be used to lure higher quality players - Australians, New Zealanders, Pacific Islanders and others - to Super Rugby Pacific.

There was just a hint this weekend that Super Rugby could be great again. But it won’t happen organically.