Nearly four years of hard work is ending for one of the America’s Cup challengers. The race between winless Alinghi Red Bull and Orient Express (with one victory) in the early hours of Wednesday morning will be pivotal in deciding who packs up their gear next week.
The French boat, nicknamed La Taihoro because it is a sister ship of Emirates Team New Zealand’s boat, is faster but the crew are error-prone and struggle to put together a clean race. If the French beat Alinghi in race 16 of the round-robin overnight, they should survive at the expense of the Swiss.
If Alinghi wins this head-to-head race (and assuming neither win any other races in round-robin two) then a one-race tiebreaker will be required.
This battle of the bottom is significant because the top finisher overall chooses their semifinal opponent, and presumably will want to face the weakest remaining team.
The round-robin racing will further reveal each boat and crew’s strengths and weaknesses. Understanding this, and factoring in the wind/wave forecast for the semifinals, will be powerful.
I fully expect Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli to easily secure the top challenger position. So far, only American Magic has shown enough boat speed to threaten the Italians.
Despite the drama of their boat being dropped by a crane, Team New Zealand have big advantages.
Grant Dalton intimated they have faster equipment not yet fitted to Taihoro. This is ominous because they are already at least as fast as any challenger. And competing in the round-robin has allowed them to analyse the challengers and counter any weaknesses.
Is the deck stacked against the challengers? You bet it is.
But the defender’s ability to create advantages is precisely why the America’s Cup is so hard to win.
Key issues to look out for are:
1. The start. Winning this means you can control the race.
I expect challengers with a boat-speed disadvantage to be aggressive during the pre-start to try to impose a penalty or gain an edge off the line. Alinghi Red Bull Racing has already done this in the preliminary regatta. Orient Express Racing lack the confidence to be aggressive so they will focus on the basics – entering on time, staying on the foils and exiting the start at maximum speed and in clear air. Conversely, Luna Rossa, American Magic and Team New Zealand have the luxury of being more conservative and can lead out to their favoured side of the course.
2. Jib choice
It was clear in the preliminary regatta that jib size and shape is important. On several occasions, including the only race where Team New Zealand was beaten, it appeared that the teams lamented their choice of jib. In lighter wind, it is difficult to make this call. A larger jib gives you more power, but it also creates more drag. A smaller jib is easier to manoeuvre, has less drag and so is faster when it is in range (i.e. has enough wind strength to maximise the power it produces for the yacht). However, if the wind is less than expected and the jib is not powerful enough, the yacht struggles to accelerate and can fall off the foils. It’s a tricky but critical call.
3. Penalties
These yachts are moving incredibly fast, they are unstable and difficult to sail, and the helmsmen have no visibility through the sails out to the other side. In effect they are sailing blind to anything out the opposite side of the yacht to where they are positioned. The co-helmsman on the opposite side is critical. Small wind changes lead to major boat speed and angle changes in these foiling craft, making passing, crossing and close-proximity sailing difficult. As the boats become more competitive and the stakes rise, mistakes will be made. An infringement can result in a penalty that can cost a race. Keeping your nose clean and avoiding penalties will be a high priority.
4. Breakages and breakdowns
These boats are on the edge and no matter how much simulation, practice and checking are done, nothing replicates the loads and pressures put on systems and equipment during racing. To finish first, first you must finish.
5. Executing manoeuvres
Staying on the foils is difficult, especially in light winds and water chop. All teams have designed foils that are as fast as possible in a straight line, the trade off is instability, especially when turning around marks, tacking or gybing and in pre-start circling. Team New Zealand appears to have an advantage in this area. In addition, their foils hang on to hydrodynamic flow at very low speeds – a big advantage in light winds and in the pre-start. In contrast, American Magic’s foils seem fast in a straight line, but have some stability challenges. With their cyclors lying down (recumbent), the Americans are vulnerable in a high intensity pre-starts and races where their opponent forces maximum manoeuvres.
6. Flat water versus choppy water
The differences in boat speed were much less apparent in the choppy water conditions of the final day of the preliminary regatta. In addition, the crews need to sail more conservatively in choppy seas to reduce the risk of ventilating the foils, losing stability and crashing down, nose-diving or spinning out in a turn.
7. Handling the pressure
As we move towards the America’s Cup match itself, the pressure grows. Massive money, time and energy has gone into these campaigns. They are led by people who are used to winning and hate to lose, both on the water and in life. Get ready for accusations, mind games and high emotion. This is, after all, the America’s Cup and we do not expect anything less.
