Rugby: 2011 - Year of the Blues?

Stephen Brett could be heading overseas. Photo / Getty Images

A lack of confidence is unlikely to be a problem for the Blues next season. It seems there's plenty within the camp.

It's not easy for those who have sat in the stands at Eden Park this season to share that optimism. They were treated to some memorable football; arguably the best since the title-winning days of 2003 when King Carlos was in his prime.

But it drifted in and out. The commitment to excellence was far from relentless. It came in bursts as if the players weren't convinced of its merit.

Only once, against the Bulls, was it sustained for 80 minutes and after that heroic effort, after hopes had been built up, the Blues pitched up seven days later on the same ground believing their very presence was all it would take to defeat the Stormers.

It's this mental frailty, this inability to back up each week that has built uncertainty as to whether the Blues really can take another step forward in 2011.

Inconsistency has been a problem since 2003 and it now feels like it will always be a problem. It's not as if the players don't understand their obligation to deliver each week. That part is drummed in. The problem has long been identified and yet it still exists.

For those who have sat through the last seven doomed campaigns, they might now wonder whether there is some failing in the development system that has failed to correctly hardwire the players.

Obviously, given he's paid to fix these things, coach Pat Lam doesn't subscribe to this.

"It's down to the prep," says Lam. "It's something we have talked about and looked at. It's about making sure we get it right, that we don't just think it will come because we played well the previous week."

Identifying the solution is one thing - implementing it is another and of all the questions that will be asked about the Blues over the next few weeks, the most pertinent is whether Lam can get inside the heads of his players and override the default yo-yo mechanism?

It is from the top that a culture of defiance is instilled. If the Blues are to break this pattern of under-achievement, end the hard luck stories and all the talk of ifs and buts, they have to learn the art of backing up.

Peter Sloane couldn't deliver on that score. David Nucifora also struggled, yet Lam is supremely confident he'll be the one - that next year will herald the breakthrough. 2011 will be the year they return to being the force they once were.

His certainty stems from the work that has been done behind the scenes. This, of course, is the time of year coaches like to make bold statements; the time they try to accentuate the positives. The dreaded season reviews are already in full flow, when every stone is lifted and peered under.

A little electioneering is no bad thing - a means for the coach to publicly endorse his own candidacy; to send the boss men a reminder that value has been added and further improvement is on the way.

Given that the Blues won only five games last year and finished ninth, Lam has tangible measures to show progress has been made. The Blues also scored more tries than any other side during the round-robin in winning seven games for a seventh place finish.

As captain Keven Mealamu said: "We ended up just being one win short." If the performance against the Cheetahs hadn't been so sloppy, or if Taniela Moa hadn't thrown the most stupid pass in Sydney, the Blues would not only have been playing this weekend, they would most likely have been so at doing Eden Park.

A case can be made to say the Blues were the inevitable victims of their own lack of experience. "What we have done from the first year to the second year, I would be very surprised if we didn't do it next year," said Lam after the Blues had defeated the Chiefs. He was responding to a question about when he felt performances would return to the peak they reached in 2003. "I'm that confident I'll put it out there now and you can remind me next year if it doesn't happen."

He admitted it was a bold claim, one also inspired by his knowledge of what his squad will look like next season.

The shift to direct contracting has given Lam some early assurance as to who will be available in 2011. He's confident about 80 per cent of the current squad will be back, including Alby Mathewson.

But is that reason for Lam to be so confident? Is the current squad capable of stepping up again; of taking the Blues to the playoffs? Even if they do defy the odds and sustain some consistency of performance, are they actually good enough to go all the way?

Big doubts exist on whether the quality is there across the team. There is depth at prop, with Charlie Faumuina an exciting prospect to support the seasoned John Afoa and Tony Woodcock.

There is no shortage of explosive runners in the back division - Isaia Toeava, Rudi Wulf, Joe Rokocoko, Rene Ranger and Luke McAlister.

The concerns are at lock, loose forward and first five (as always). The extension and new format next year means there will be 16 regular season games. Depth will be tested particularly in the high attrition tight forward positions.

Ali Williams is uncertain to be match fit by the start of next year's campaign, which is why Troy Flavell would have been such a smart acquisition.

The Crusaders have shown how much quality is needed. They have three All Blacks and Sam Whitelock, who is on his way towards the same achievement. Anthony Boric and Kurtis Haiu are not a championship pairing. The Blues will have the depth right when Haiu is fourth choice.

Viliami Ma'afu's departure to Japan leaves the Blues without a proven No8, although there is justified faith in Chris Lowrey, who missed this campaign due to illness. Jerome Kaino, Daniel Braid and Lowrey could be an effective trio. But a title-winning unit? And who backs-up? Peter Saili'i still doesn't convince and the game has drifted away from Serge Lilo. Tom Chamberlain is an unknown quantity and the Blues really do need at least one, if not two experienced, versatile, ball-carrying loose forwards in their mix.

They also need another first five either to support or replace Brett, who could head overseas. It's thought Brett will stay at the Blues if he stays in New Zealand and All Black selection could have a significant bearing on this.

If Brett leaves, options are thin. Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden and Stephen Donald are staying where they are and Mike Delany has turned them down before. Michael Hobbs is a possibility as is Robbie Robinson, who is off contract with Southland and therefore in a position to stay loyal to the Stags but commit to the Blues. His future may be as a fullback, though, which is why the offshore market is probably where they will end up shopping.

If he stays, Brett played well enough to believe he will start 2011 less prone to making erratic choices; that he will be more confident and assertive. He's got the running game but didn't develop his tactical appreciation. He struggled to play territory and mix his options effectively - meaning the Blues carried an air of predictability that they were always going to go wide.

At times they were breathtakingly good at that high tempo, wide game where they ran from everywhere. But to advance, to enjoy a more successful campaign, they must develop alternative strategies. There has to be a fallback option for rainy nights.

Some, maybe all, of the gaps in their playing roster can be filled. Developing a possession/territory game is not so hard, especially with McAlister at second five and the experience of Keven Mealamu, Woodcock , Williams, Kaino and Braid.

But it all comes back to the question of culture and whether the Blues can rediscover the lost art of following a good win with a good win.