Derby pits big pack against speedsters

By WYNNE GRAY

Who will win the Super 12 rebound round tonight at Eden Park?

Trawl through the truncated evidence of this season's competition and there is not a lot to suggest the Blues or the Chiefs should be strong favourites for this local derby.

Both have been defeated by the Crusaders and Reds, while the Blues beat the feeble opening-round response from the Hurricanes as the Chiefs slipped up against the unbeaten Waratahs.

Uncertainty about each side's form should raise the curiosity levels for those who like turning up to games without a likely outcome embedded in their psyche.

And the Blues and Chiefs, no matter their troubled start to this series, should be telling themselves that the Crusaders won the 1998 title after a similar beginning, the Reds made the semis last season after losing four of their first six games, and the Cats did the same in 2000.

This match collects all those doubtful elements and offers a contrast in styles.

The Blues have gone for a pack of heavyweights, the largest mass that coach Peter Sloane can summon as he makes demands that they do the basics first, to drive forward together rather than the lateral splinter groupings of the last few matches.

Injuries, defections and choice have altered the backline and there is bound to be a much more stringent pattern to their initial plans.

Without access to increased horsepower up front, the Chiefs have to look for a holding pattern from their tight five and then go for a fast-paced game to unsettle the Blues' rhythm and methods.

Losing Jonno Gibbes to illness and still without the inspiration of captain Deon Muir, the Chiefs have to use the speed of their loosies with the workrate of their midfield to release the scoring menace of Roger Randle, Bruce Reihana and Keith Lowen.

It was only a year ago that the Blues were badly dented 34-16 by the Chiefs at Rotorua.

That night the Blues became frustrated, lost their defensive line and offered easy pickings with their lateral attack.

It was a game which rejuvenated the Chiefs, galvanised their supporters and cast aside their reputation as the other New Zealand side.

The Blues cannot use any excuses tonight about being caught off guard. They have been on edge at training all week.

There has been less noise, greater concentration, more anxiety than usual about their prospects.

Initially they will look to reactivate their driving play.

Captain Glenn Taylor has Vula Maimuri back to deliver momentum with variation from a kicking game by new first five-eighths James Arlidge and a supporting line of chasers.

That will test the Chiefs' reply as Todd Miller, Randle and Reihana are not noted kickers and prefer to run their way out of defence.

From set plays robust first five-eighths David Hill and the energetic Mark Ranby will test the inside defence of the Blues as they look to create space further afield for their danger men.

The Blues bring the danger of Ron Cribb, who is regaining his potent mix of defence and attack, while Troy Flavell has been switched to the flank.

But this pair will succeed only if the tight forwards slug forward.

In among all the theory about this match will be the dogfight at the breakdown, the battle between Marty Holah and Justin Collins, and the effectiveness of their colleagues with or without the ball.

The decisions of referee Lyndon Bray will play a part, too.

He is in charge of his first Super 12 meeting, a game of huge consequence for each side where discipline and teamwork will be hugely tested.