Off to Ireland where cup hopes are sure to sink in the bog

Sports editor DAVID LEGGATT paints a gloomy picture of the outcome of the crucial IRB meeting in Dublin.

Fast forward, just for a moment, through the present spot of bother that is the World Cup shambles, to Dublin, April 12.

The last few days - and most likely the next couple of weeks - have been like trudging through a bog, in a thick fog, with a hand tied behind your back. Blindfolded.

But in that fair city, 21 men will gather to decide the fate of next year's World Cup.

Forget the comments of the International Rugby Board's communications manager, Chris Rea, who said the Rugby World Cup Ltd executive body could put the red pencil through New Zealand's sub-host ambitions.

Within a day or so, Rea, a forgettable Lions back in the unforgettable 1971 team to tour New Zealand, had revised his comments. Only the full IRB council could do that, he said.

In a way that encapsulates what has been going on. This has been a boon for the lover of innuendo, rumour, speculation, smear, he said - no, he said, misinformation and - being desperately generous - a certain economy of truth.

What is crystal clear is that the New Zealand Rugby Union's hopes rest on that Dublin talkfest - and more specifically, how sweetly New Zealand's people can murmur in the ears of their friends.

They will whisper about the goodwill the All Blacks have stored up over the best end of a century.

They might quietly plead for support, arguing that the game is about more than grubby piles of cash, and the future prospects of World Cups being spread through the constituents in a fair, even-handed way will sharply diminish if the original deal is given the flick.

They may even lean on one or two delegates using the All Blacks as leverage if votes do not fall the right way.

"Vote for us or that eight-game tour you fancied every couple of years is dog tucker," they might say.

But it seems likely their strongest efforts are likely to bring them up short of the required number.

The RWCL board comprises The Invisible Man, aka Vernon Pugh, New Zealand's Rob Fisher, Jacques Laurans, of France, England's Malcolm Phillips and South African Rian Oberholzer.

Pugh is the chairman, as well as being president of the IRB.

Fisher is vice-president of the IRB, and has been silent since all hell broke loose last Friday afternoon. His New Zealand team-mate, so to speak, is Tim Gresson.

Expect Pugh to push through a recommendation to the IRB that Australia be sole host next year.

At the full IRB meeting, eight countries will have two votes each - England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, France, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand - with one vote apiece for Italy, Argentina, Japan, Canada and the amateur federations.

Of the Home Unions, the Welsh men are scarcely likely to pull out the blade behind Pugh's back; Phillips can scarcely do other than take his fellow delegate, former Lions captain Billy Beaumont, with him, while the men of Ireland and Scotland cannot be expected to break ranks.

Remember, this is a 12-point game. Progress report: 8-0.

The French have often taken a stance from, shall we say, the left bank. Not on this occasion. 10-0.

Oberholzer, remember - like Laurans - an RWCL man, will take his buddy, Silas Nkununu, with him. 12-0. Game over.

Let's assume the one-voters side with the NZRFU, and that Australia and New Zealand abstain. 12-5.

The picture fits the jersey. All black.