John Drake: Ahead of the pack

This NPC final has a familiar look about it. After all, Auckland and Otago have met more in finals than any other teams in the competition.

Frankly, back in August neither team was on my list of serious final contenders. For me, Canterbury and Waikato seemed naturals.

Sure, Auckland have all the resources but recently had not been performing. After a shock debut season, Pat Lam must be congratulated for putting together an excellent season. He seems to have analysed his talent pool well.

Certainly he has got All Blacks to burn, but this season has been built on the others, not the encumbent All Blacks.

Some say this team lacks structure, which is really an insult to the team and management. This Auckland team take their shots at goal when on offer, rely on set-piece dominance and have a definite game plan that requires swift ruck ball and the ability of all players to offload in the tackle to put the attackers behind the defensive line.

This looks high risk but is similar to what the All Blacks are attempting. It requires tremendous accuracy and swift support play, but it is structured.

Otago have harshly been called South Harbour and Hawkes Bay B for their player recruitment policy.

They have taken a different route to the final, for early on they seemed to be struggling to score tries but have ended up with a respectable 29 tries and 19 conceded while Auckland have scored 38 but given up 32 - more than any other team except of course Northland.

I think Otago will reckon they have an edge at scrum time, so look to Anton Oliver and loosehead prop Chris King putting pressure on John Afoa at Auckland's put-ins as last week Tony Woodcock made Afoa's game hell at the set piece.

Tom Donnelly and James Ryan were made to look good at the lineout last week due to Canterbury hooker Corey Flynn's shocking throwing.

Against this, Ali Williams has been the form lock in the country since the Lions arrived. He is a confidence player and should get his own ball and some of Otago's.

Chris Smylie and Nick Evans have settled well behind the Otago pack but will be under more pressure in this game than ever before.

Tasesa Lavea never looks better than when he has room from the swift-passing Steve Devine, who has hit form at the dead right time for Auckland and his own All Black prospects.

Seilala Mapusua and Neil Brew have grown a great understanding in the midfield and together do a lot of the hard work that has made Otago so thrifty at conceding tries.

Mapusua has played too well for too long now to be ignored for higher honours. Against this, Auckland's task has been who to leave out. Sense prevailed last week with Mils Muliaina back and proving how much his class has been wasted on the bench.

Out wide you would expect Auckland's superstars to have the edge, but Otago have worked hard in this area. Left wing Matt Saunders in particular has the power and the pace to cause some problems. I thought Joe Rokocoko looked frightening last week and could make a mess of the Otago defence if given room.

So two pretty evenly matched teams in the best form should fight out an intense battle.

The team that wins the war at the breakdown will come out on top.

In fact, if Auckland get the same dominance as against North Harbour last week the score could embarrass Otago.

Against Canterbury, loose forward trio Josh Blackie, Craig Newby and Grant Webb dominated the pace to, and action at, the breakdown. Frankly, Richie McCaw, Mose Tuiali'i and Reuben Thorne were made to look average. Yes, even the great McCaw was left behind by the southern combination.

Lam seems to have finally got his combination right with Jerome Kaino adding pace and power to Justin Collins and Daniel Braid, who are essentially two openside flankers.

Sure, the other components are important, but winning quick ball and slowing down the opposition at the breakdown decides matches these days. And let's be honest, it will come down to who are the best cheats and who manipulate referee Steve Walsh the most.

What about the All Black chances for those on show? Graham Henry and his selectors will have 90 per cent, if not more, of the touring party agreed upon, but for some players from both teams this is another opportunity to make the selectors think again.

Selectors admire players who perform under pressure in finals, so these guys have earned another chance to impress. Let's hope that what happens at the area we used to call the ruck allows all involved to show their skills in a positive light.

Forget all the talk of hoodoos and statistics. It's the ruck/maul battle on the night that will decide the winner.

* John Drake is a former All Black prop.