Those who buzz around in the Beehive may be right. That if they hold their nerve, back their strategy – whatever it may be – then better times are just around the corner.
But equally, New Zealand could be teetering on the brink of an existential crisis, and all this talk of being on the right track will be proven to be the sort of detached and delusional nonsense espoused by World War I generals who were still thinking of warfare as being about horses and bayonets rather than machine guns and air assaults.
In an almost perfect replica, the All Blacks are a microcosmic metaphor for what is happening more broadly in New Zealand.
Head coach Scott Robertson came into the role at about the same time Christopher Luxon was elected Prime Minister, and the former, like the latter, came into office as a markedly different character to his predecessor, promising change and better results.
Two years on, and the All Blacks’ brighter future has failed to materialise, and Robertson, like Luxon, has discovered that holding office is significantly harder than being in opposition, and in his world, the roles of stubborn inflation and an out-of-control cost of living crisis are being played respectively by Argentina and South Africa.
The latter, it could be said, in hammering the All Blacks 43-10 two weeks ago, was the equivalent of GDP retracting -0.9% in the June quarter.
Certainly, the record defeat to the Boks has brought the same avalanche of questions the Government has faced about the faltering economy.
It has left the fan base unsure about whether they witnessed a minor setback on a longer road to recovery or a nightmarish glimpse of what is about to become the All Blacks’ future.
The parallels are simply endless, because in picking the team he has to face Australia at Eden Park, Robertson has emulated Luxon’s response to his critics that he holds unshakeable faith that his plan is right, and not in need of a radical overhaul.
To some extent, Robertson’s measured and moderate response to the Springboks defeat is understandable.
The return of Codie Taylor and Cam Roigard – two first-choice regulars when they are fit – simultaneously gives the All Blacks lineout greater accuracy and the attack better variation.
And bringing in Caleb Clarke gives the backline greater aerial prowess and power running, and so with three changes – and arguably all three are restoring injured first teamers – Robertson is effectively backing his people and blueprint.
He was clear that he didn’t feel the need to make wholesale changes, as his analysis suggested that the final score in Wellington didn’t reflect a systemic meltdown but was instead a consequence of the All Blacks chasing the game in the final 12 minutes.
Modern rugby can produce these sorts of anomalistic blowouts – just as economic recoveries can be beset by a rogue quarter – and Robertson, in advocating for people’s trust and patience, has made a show of faith the equal of Luxon’s.
This is going to turn out to be either inspirational, strategic leadership under pressure, or disastrously misplaced self-confidence that failed to see the warning signs prescient in bad results.
In Robertson’s case, the concern is that he hasn’t addressed his stuttering midfield combination of Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor.
It’s a combination that should work, because it has functioned well for the Hurricanes, but as an All Blacks pairing they have looked out of sync in their six tests together, unsure how to stay connected on defence.
There’s enough evidence to say that this is a combination that should have had a red line put through it this week, and an alternative tried, but Robertson is nothing if not consistent in his belief that he has the right attack plan and a conviction that these two are best-placed to facilitate it.
Maybe one more game is all they need to click, just as maybe one more quarter is all the economy needs to come right.
It all feels so tenuous, though – hopeful rather than expectant. And to the question of where the next blow is coming, the answer may well be the Wallabies and their magical centre, Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.
