Fabian Holland has impressed with the Highlanders this season. Photo / Photosport
Four rookies could force their way into the first All Blacks squad of the year, but with a squeeze set to strike the stacked loose forwards, there will be just as much interest in who misses the cut.
While Scott Robertson adopted a conservative selection policy for his maiden season at the helm, the All Blacks blooded 10 debutants last year.
Most of those fresh faces are expected to continue their development, but Blues lock Sam Darry is injured, playmaker Harry Plummer is leaving for France and Hurricanes loose forward Peter Lakai could be among those to feel the pinch.
Robertson, as he did in his first, challenging foray as All Blacks coach last July, will be intent on using his full squad in three home tests against France. But after welcoming a host of rookies in 2024, this year’s focus will largely switch to building combinations and cohesion which leaves less room for another new intake.
The bulk of the All Blacks squad will, therefore, have tasted test rugby, but the likes of Highlanders lock Fabian Holland, Blues prop Josh Fusitu’a or Chiefs counterpart Ollie Norris, Hurricanes openside Du’Plessis Kirifi and Chiefs wing Leroy Carter are among the rookies pushing for inclusion.
Darry’s absence is expected to pave the way for Netherlands-born lock Holland to crack the All Blacks squad for the first time.
Holland, following eligibility clearance, featured for the All Blacks XV before impressing Robertson and senior players while training with the All Blacks at the backend of the northern tour.
After another standout season for the Highlanders, the 22-year-old is now expected to earn his maiden All Blacks inclusion ahead of Chiefs second-rowers Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Josh Lord.
Injuries open the door in the front row with Hurricanes hooker Asafo Aumua expected to miss the July series after blowing his hamstring out in training which could pave the way for George Bell to retain his place.
With veteran All Blacks and Blues prop Ofa Tuʻungafasi sidelined after neck surgery, the All Blacks must summon at least one loosehead replacement, too.
Crusaders prop George Bower, having played 22 tests, is the likely frontrunner but the dynamic and mobile Fusitu’a or Norris could be included with Xavier Numia dropping down the pecking order due to his penalty count at scrum time.
“Ofa’s experience last year was so valuable to us,” All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan told the Herald last week. “He finished games in that area and was a point of difference. It does give an opportunity for another couple of boys potentially.
“What that looks like and who that is we’re pretty open in the next couple of weeks. Some lads have finished their season as well. Without putting names on anyone, it’s pretty open but there’s some good lads playing some good footy.”
The big squeeze comes in the loose forwards where the All Blacks cannot select all incumbents and in form contenders.
In a 36-man squad, the All Blacks selected seven loose forwards for last year’s northern tour.
Robertson can select as many as 35 players for France but with a desire to give everyone game time in July, he may include fewer than that.
Of those to feature regularly for the All Blacks, Blues openside Dalton Papali’i could be sweating on his inclusion.
Injuries prevented Papali’i, Ethan Blackadder and Luke Jacobson from featuring on last year’s northern tour and with Hurricanes co-captain Kirifi delivering a compelling season with his turnover proficiency influential, he could demand a maiden call-up.
Kirifi is believed to have been close to moving to Japan before he was encouraged to re-sign with New Zealand Rugby through to 2027 earlier this year.
Papali’i was long considered Sam Cane’s heir apparent but he fell out of favour with Robertson last year.
While he was consistently strong from a defensive point of view this season, his impact with ball in hand has diluted with the Blues tight, direct style under Vern Cotter.
Lakai remains one of the best ball carriers in the New Zealand game. The 22-year-old is undoubtedly the future of the All Blacks loose forwards, but after impressing against France in Paris last year he hasn’t reached that level with the Hurricanes this season and is also believed to be carrying a knee injury.
Chiefs loose forward Simon Parker is another prospect to impress, but he is expected to be ruled out of contention by a six-to-eight-week ankle injury which could grant teammate Samipeni Finau a reprieve.
Crusaders No 8 Christian Lio-Willie is another big mover but Ryan knows the All Blacks can’t find room for everyone.
“The loose forwards, I don’t know what it is but it’s the same every year and that’s a compliment to our game and New Zealand,” Ryan said. “We’ve got such a broad range of loose forwards that have a unique skill set of their own, whether they’re specialist sevens or six, seven, eight.
“It’s phenomenal how Ardie Savea has played this year, and how that will look in our mix is going to be at the forefront of our thinking before we name the squad.”
While Wallace Sititi and Savea are certain starters, the perennial question of who is the All Blacks’ long-term blindside remains unanswered.
“That’s a fair comment. It would be nice if someone put their hand up and said ‘it’s me’ but that’s been a bit mixed with who is playing there and how teams are using different players at different times in that position,” Ryan said.
“As we get into the season someone will step up I’ve got no doubt about that.”
In the backs uncertainty surrounds the All Blacks third first five-eighth behind Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie after Stephen Perofeta missed the majority of the Blues season with a lingering calf complaint.
Anton Lienert-Brown’s recovery from a broken collarbone casts doubt over his involvement, too, with a potential fine line call looming between Crusaders captain David Havili and Quinn Tupaea, the latter deserving of a recall after reaffirming his status among Super Rugby’s leading midfielders this season.
Mark Tele’a’s decision to commit his long-term future to Japanese club Toyota is likely to create a vacancy in the outside backs, with the All Blacks preferring to invest in the future.
Caleb Clarke, despite not scoring a try with the Blues this season, and Sevu Reece are expected to be retained alongside the versatile Ruben Love who can cover fullback, first five-eighths and wing.
Chiefs rookie Leroy Carter could, though, be a bolter of sorts with his speed proving a point of difference, unless Chay Fihaki is included after his surprising inclusion to train with the All Blacks last year.
While the non-Super Rugby finalists gathered for a three-day camp in Tauranga this week, further injury setbacks or compelling performances in Saturday’s decider between the Crusaders and Chiefs in Christchurch could determine the last tight selection calls.
Last year, Sititi stormed into the All Blacks squad with a superb performance in the Chiefs semifinal victory against the Hurricanes in Wellington.
With the All Blacks selectors watching on, fringe prospects such as sevens convert Carter, Norris, Tupaea, Emoni Narawa and Lio-Willie have everything to play for.
“If we weren’t sure what our squad was now, we wouldn’t be doing our jobs properly, but you do get to see players under pressure in finals,” Ryan said. “There’s something on the line. We saw that in the quarter-finals weekend where the accuracy wasn’t quite dialed in. That gets us thinking and probably reconfirms a few things.”
Props: Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Pasilio Tosi, Tamaiti Williams, George Bower/Josh Fusitu’a/Ollie Norris
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Samisoni Taukei’aho, George Bell
Locks: Scott Barrett, Tupou Vaa’i, Patrick Tuipulotu, Fabian Holland
Loose forwards: Ardie Savea, Wallace Sititi, Ethan Blackadder, Luke Jacobson, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Samipeni Finau
Halfbacks: Cam Roigard, Cortez Ratima, Noah Hotham
First five-eighths: Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Ruben Love
Midfield: Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Billy Proctor, David Havili, Anton Lienert-Brown
Outside backs: Caleb Clarke, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece, Leroy Carter/Chay Fihaki
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.
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