Bolters are unlikely, change certain, when the All Blacks unveil their Rugby Championship squad on Monday.
All Blacks coach Scott Robertson will call up at least three additional players following the 3-0 sweep of the French in July to form his 36-man Rugby Championship squad.
While stability will be widely evident, injury setbacks at halfback, wing and in the loose forwards, coupled with a welcome returning cavalry, signal movement in key areas.
First, the good news.
The All Blacks forward pack will be significantly bolstered by the return of Tamaiti Williams and Wallace Sititi, two dynamic figures who will impose another dimension to the attacking firepower and offloading after both missing the French series.
Sititi was the All Blacks’ player of the year in his rookie test season while Williams’ mobility, skill, power and scrummaging marked him one of the Crusaders most influential players before he played through knee-ligament issues in the Super Rugby final to leave him needing surgery.
Williams’ return could squeeze out fellow Crusaders loosehead prop George Bower after he was a late addition to the July squad.
Starting tighthead prop Tyrel Lomax will miss the opening two tests in Argentina while he recovers from hand surgery which will promote Fletcher Newell’s growing presence and likely add Chiefs counterpart George Dyer to the squad as temporary cover while veteran Ofa Tu’ungafasi works his way back from neck surgery.
Elsewhere in the front row Asafo Aumua’s return after missing the July series against France with a hamstring issue will likely push Brodie McAlister out of the squad to strengthen the established hooking ranks.
The All Blacks curiously selected five loose forwards in their July squad but with Sititi not the only returning incumbent, Robertson will surely add more to his area of expertise with attrition rates sure to hit hard against the combative Pumas and Springboks forward packs.
Hurricanes loose forward Peter Lakai’s versatility and noted ball carrying is expected to be highly valued, particularly with Luke Jacobson ruled out for five weeks by the quad injury he sustained warming up for the third French test in Hamilton.
Lakai was unavailable for July due to a knee injury but, providing he emerges unscathed from Wellington’s opening NPC match against Canterbury this weekend, he is likely to be included after impressing against France in Paris last November.
The 22-year-old is certain to be a long-term feature of the All Blacks loose forward trio and will benefit from further exposure.
Others on the loose forward fringe, including Crusaders No 8 Christian Lio-Willie and Blues openside Dalton Papali’i, face a nervous wait.
Lio-Willie was elevated to the July squad after Sititi’s withdrawal while Papali’i featured off the bench in a widely changed All Blacks team in the third French test after missing selection in the original squad.
The All Blacks are keeping a close eye on Chiefs loose forward Simon Parker as he returns from injury with Northland in the NPC but, at this stage, he appears more likely to be called up for the northern tour.
With the All Blacks expected to persist with switching Tupou Vaa’i to blindside flanker, Naitoa Ah Kuoi could be included as additional locking cover as captain Scott Barrett returns from injury too.
Noah Hotham’s high ankle sprain that requires surgery comes at an unfortunate time after his impressive cameo off the bench in the third French test in Hamilton.
Hotham was poised to seriously challenge Cortez Ratima for the right to deputise for Cam Roigard but he will now be forced to wait for that chance.
In Hotham’s absence the All Blacks could turn to Crusaders halfback Kyle Preston, with his ability to kick off both feet a major asset, but with experience a possible concern among their No 9s Finlay Christie is likely to be recalled despite the Newcastle Falcons reportedly chasing his services.
Caleb Clarke’s ankle injury shines a further light on the All Blacks struggles to replace Mark Tele’a.
The Blues wingers finished last year as the All Blacks incumbent finishers but with Tele’a leaving for three years in Japan after the NPC and Clarke sidelined, the edges remain unresolved.
The All Blacks will push on with Sevu Reece and Rieko Ioane’s shift from centre to wing but they must consider Chiefs wings Emoni Narawa, who was promoted from injury cover to start the second French test in Wellington, and Leroy Carter.
Anton Lienert-Brown’s shoulder complaint – after returning from a broken collarbone for his first match in three months against France – is not thought to be serious which should ensure he is retained.
Others among the bloated six midfielders selected in July could be nervous as Leicester Fainga’anuku’s homecoming looms into view.
After returning from two years with French club Toulon, Fainga’anuku is unavailable until the All Blacks northern tour – unless he’s granted an injury exemption from the NZ Rugby board – to leave him to feature for Tasman in the NPC.
Those in the All Blacks’ midfield and outside backs, though, will be looking over their shoulders at Fainga’anuku’s return.
Possible inclusions for the Rugby Championship:
Tamaiti Williams, Wallace Sititi, Asafo Aumua, George Dyer, Peter Lakai, Finlay Christie, Emoni Narawa.
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.