All Blacks in the final 20 minutes 2024: A recent trend or a long-running issue?

Tupou Vaa'i reacts in disappointment after the All Blacks' defeat to the Springboks. Photo / Photosport

The following article was one of the best-read Premium articles in 2024. The story originally ran in September.

It was a long-held notion that the All Blacks would get the better of sides in the final quarter of a match. Whether it was superior fitness or better depth, the impression was the All Blacks always finished stronger.

But in this year’s Rugby Championship, it’s been the opposite. Through four matches, three of which were defeats, the All Blacks have been outscored 36-0 in the final quarter.

It appears to be a more recent trend, as in the first few matches under Scott Robertson, the All Blacks certainly finished stronger.

In the July series against England, the All Blacks outscored Steve Borthwick‘s side 14-0 across the final 20 minutes of each test, coming back to win both games. They also held Fiji scoreless in San Diego after the 60th minute.

Robertson says rectifying their final-quarter performances is certainly a focus.

“We’re aware of it,” the All Blacks coach said yesterday.

“It’s something we’re addressing constantly, it’s in front of mind to bring into practice. Now, we need to see it on the field. We understand how important test matches are at the end of the game and we’ve got to be better there. So it’s a focus for us.”

If Robertson is looking for a quick fix, improved discipline, and better goalkicking, would certainly help.

Despite similar penalty counts to their opponents, their last three Rugby Championship matches have featured a yellow card in the final 20 minutes (Asafo Aumua against Argentina, Ofa Tuʻungafasi in Johannesburg, and Tyrel Lomax in Cape Town). That’s a trend going back to last year.

During the knockout stages of the Rugby World Cup, Codie Taylor was yellow-carded in the 64th minute against Ireland, while Scott Barrett also got his marching orders in the final quarter of the semifinal against Argentina. Add in Sam Cane’s red card in the final and the All Blacks were down to 14 men at some stage of the final quarter in all three knockout games.

In 2022, the All Blacks amassed 10 cards over 13 tests. Half of those came in the final 20 minutes, with Beauden Barrett twice being yellow-carded late in matches.

The good news for the All Blacks is that final-quarter woes are one of many issues for their next opponent.

Looking ahead to their next two tests, they face an Australian side that just conceded 33 points in the final 20 minutes against Argentina on Sunday morning.

All Blacks cards since 2022, 32 tests

0-60th minute - 13 cards

Lost to Ireland 23-12, Yellow: Leicester Fainga’anuku 17th minute

Lost to Ireland 23-12, Yellow: Ofa Tu’ungafasi 25th

Beat Argentina 53–3, Yellow: Fletcher Newell 56th

Beat Australia 39-37, Yellow: Dalton Papali’i 24th

Beat Scotland 31-23, Yellow: Anton Lienert-Brown 11th

Lost to South Africa 35-7, Yellow: Scott Barrett 14th

Lost to South Africa 35-7, Yellow: Sam Cane 15th

Lost to South Africa 35-7, Yellow: Scott Barrett 39th

Lost to France 27-13, Yellow: Will Jordan 58th

Beat Ireland 28-24, Yellow: Aaron Smith 37th

Lost to South Africa 12-11, Yellow: Shannon Frizell 2nd

Lost to South Africa 12-11, Red: Sam Cane 27th

Lost to South Africa 18-12, Yellow: Sevu Reece 16th

60th-80th minute – 11 cards

Beat Ireland 42-19, Yellow: Karl Tu’inukuafe 79th

Beat South Africa 35-23, Yellow: Beauden Barrett 66th

Lost to Argentina 25-18, Yellow: Shannon Frizell 70th

Beat Japan 38-31, Red: Brodie Retallick 64th

Drew with England 25-25, Yellow: Beauden Barrett 72nd

Beat Namibia 71-3, Red: Ethan de Groot, 72nd

Beat Ireland 28-24, Yellow: Codie Taylor 64th

Beat Argentina 44-6, Yellow: Scott Barrett 66th

Beat Argentina 42-10, Yellow: Asafo Aumua 76th

Lost to South Africa 31-27, Yellow: Ofa Tuʻungafasi 68th

Lost to South Africa 18-12, Yellow: Tyrel Lomax 73rd

Cameron McMillan has been a sports journalist since 2003 and is NZME’s Deputy Head of Sport. A career highlight was live blogging the 2011 Rugby World Cup final from Eden Park (in a media box surrounded by French journalists).