One way or the other, Fehi Fineanganofo’s future will build to a crescendo in the coming weeks.
All Blacks coach Dave Rennie and attack coach Mike Blair visited the Hurricanes on Thursday as part of their week-long return to New Zealand while their Japanese club Kobe awaits their League One finals push.
Rennie is certain to have engaged in a quiet one-on-one chat with Hurricanes wing Fineanganofo to convey he wants him in his first All Blacks squad this year.
While NZ Rugby is adamant it will not offer a vastly improved contract or attempt to buy Fineanganofo out of his two-year Newcastle agreement, the Herald understands discussions around his future remain highly active behind the scenes.
A conversation with Rennie that projects certainty around Fineanganofo’s All Blacks pathway would significantly alter the complexion of his New Zealand salary and, potentially, spark a change of heart and career pathway.
With 15 tries from 11 games – one short of matching Ben Lam and Joe Roff’s single-season record – Fineanganofo has rapidly established his presence as Super Rugby Pacific’s form finisher.
And with the league-leading Hurricanes locked in the Super Rugby playoffs, Fineanganofo is at short odds to claim the try-scoring record outright to enhance his credentials.
Fineanganofo’s switch from the left to right edge to accommodate Kini Naholo’s starting return against the Blues on Saturday night further underlines his appeal.
Test rugby is a different beast but, on form, Fineanganofo would walk into his maiden All Blacks squad this year.
At the start of this year, though, the 23-year-old signed to join ambitious English club Newcastle on a deal to triple his New Zealand salary.
At that point, NZ Rugby did not recognise Fineanganofo’s potential – and his contract offer that paled in comparison to Newcastle reflected such an assessment.
Red Bull-backed Newcastle are believed to have tabled a deal worth about $450,000, while Fineanganofo, between the Hurricanes and Bay of Plenty, is earning in the vicinity of $150,000.
After emerging from humble Onehunga beginnings, and with a desire to help his parents retire, such a compelling upgrade proved too enticing for Fineanganofo to turn down.
The prospect of an All Blacks call-up drastically changes Fineanganofo’s potential New Zealand rugby package, though, by injecting at least $120,000 per year. Combined with a likely pay rise from the Hurricanes, Fineanganofo could contemplate earning close to $300,000, should he decide to stay.
While the gap between New Zealand and Newcastle remains significant, featuring for the All Blacks would raise Fineanganofo’s profile and earning potential, particularly among wealthy European clubs.
Backing out on a signed contract, though, raises reputational risk for a young prospect with his career in front of him.
This is where the NRL and rugby union are worlds apart in how they navigate contractual complexities.
When Warriors front rower Mitch Barnett requested to break his contract and return to Australia early, the club negotiated a player swap that will allow their captain to leave next year in exchange for Broncos utility back Grant Anderson shifting to Auckland.
Disgruntled Warriors halfback Luke Metcalf is expected to switch to the Sydney-based Dragons, despite last year signing a contract extension to remain in Auckland through to 2028.
NZ Rugby boss Steve Lancaster could notch a major win in his first few weeks as permanent chief executive by brokering an agreement with Newcastle that allows Fineanganofo to remain in New Zealand.
Fineanganofo’s situation is delicate, as World Rugby regulations stipulate national unions, clubs and rugby bodies can’t be seen to encourage or incite players to break contracts.
NZ Rugby is also wary that stepping in could create a precedent.
Yet a similar precedent exists in the form of former All Blacks wing Waisake Naholo.
At the start of 2015, Naholo signed to join French club Clermont after having explored his New Zealand options.
His sudden rise in form generated pressure to stay and a change of heart, which culminated in an undisclosed commercial arrangement with Clermont that allowed Naholo to play 27 tests for the All Blacks – and become a 2015 World Cup champion.
Speaking on the Rugby Direct podcast this week, Lancaster ruled out NZ Rugby negotiating directly with Newcastle to retain Fineanganofo.
“We don’t really do that. These are player choices,” Lancaster said. “There’s nothing stopping Fehi from doing that but it’s not a space we get into, looking to buy players out of contracts. Things have changed a lot for him since the end of last year. He’s taken every opportunity he’s been given so good on him.
“He’s made a decision. If he has a change of heart, that’s absolutely up to him. Dave Rennie said the same thing yesterday. The ball is in his court around that. But even if he does honour his contract to Newcastle, he’s still young. He might well be back.”
Previous All Blacks coaches have largely moved on from departing players in favour of developing others committed to New Zealand rugby, but nothing is stopping Rennie from selecting Fineanganofo in his first squad in July, which may help convince him to stay.
Quizzed on the wave of fringe and former All Blacks departing this year, Rennie projected a philosophical outlook on the depth erosion.
“It’s tough. Some of the names that are coming out now we’ve known about for months. They’d made their commitment a long time ago. It’s going to happen. There’s massive money out there in Japan and in Europe. Guys are going to make decisions based on what’s best for them and their families and you’ve got to respect that,” Rennie said.
“Our job is to try and communicate well with them, let them know there’s a pathway here, but guys will still go.
“In the old days guys went at the end of their career and now there’s a little less patience, an opportunity for guys to go early, and maybe some think they can come back in time.
“Ideally, we want everyone to stay here but it’s unrealistic.”
Rennie’s fireside chat at Hurricanes HQ this week may change Fineanganofo’s outlook and could lead to efforts to strike a compromise agreement with Newcastle.
Otherwise, Fineanganofo will soon depart New Zealand and he may attempt to follow Leicester Fainga’anuku’s lead.
Fainga’anuku turned heads when he left New Zealand aged 24 to cash in abroad. After savouring two seasons in the south of France with Toulon, he has since returned to the All Blacks and starred this season for the Crusaders.
Fainga’anuku is one example of rugby’s modern transient landscape.
In a constant struggle against stacked market forces NZ Rugby’s retention of top tier talent has, historically, won most fights.
Fineanganofo’s case stresses the need for talent identification and contract negotiations to remain world-class to ensure the All Blacks retain the cream of its under-threat crop.
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.