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Home / Sport / League / Warriors

NRL: What Warriors must do to secure top four finish for best chance of winning title

By Ben Francis
Journalist·NZ Herald·
25 Jul, 2025 12:00 AM7 mins to read

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ZB sports journalist Ben Plummer and Herald sports journalist Alex Powell join Michael Morrah in the studio.
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The NRL heads into the final quarter of the regular season this weekend with seven games remaining for the majority of the sides.

The Warriors currently sit fourth on 30 points and hold a four-point buffer over the fifth-placed Brisbane Broncos. The four-time defending champion Panthers are a further point back in sixth and the Manly Sea Eagles and Cronulla Sharks in seventh and eighth with 24.

Based on past seasons, 30 points should be enough to at least make the top eight, while realistically they will need four wins to secure their spot in the top four, which will be paramount if they are going to contend for the title.

Since the playoffs were extended beyond straight semifinals 51 years ago, only the 1993 Broncos and 1995 Canterbury Bulldogs have won the title from outside the top four.

Since the current format replaced the McIntyre system in 2012, only the 2014 Bulldogs (7th) and 2017 Cowboys (8th) have made the grand final from outside the top four.

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The format (1 v 4, 2 v 3, 5 v 8, 6 v 7) sees the winners of the first two games going straight to the preliminary finals, while the losers get a second life with a home final against the winner of the other two quarter-finals.

What works in the Warriors’ favour is that on paper, they have an easy run home, but history suggests there could be some banana skins thrown in the mix.

Here is the Warriors’ run home:

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Round 21: Gold Coast Titans

At home; Titans currently 17th

While this should be a good chance of two points for the Warriors because of the Titans’ struggles in 2025, it will not be that easy for Andrew Webster’s men.

The last time these two teams met, the Titans claimed a 66-6 win, while they have won their past two meetings in Auckland and six of the last eight dating back to 2020.

In their Anzac Day clash at Mt Smart last year, the Titans were 0-7 to start the season but walked away with a 27-24 win.

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Adding to the occasion, is Titans coach Des Hasler celebrating his 500th match, becoming just the sixth man to achieve the milestone.

The Warriors’ right-edge defence has been a big concern and the speed of Gold Coast’s players could expose that.

Our prediction: A Warriors win, hopefully convincingly.

Elsewhere: The Storm, with no Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen, beat the Roosters last night to move to 32 points, leapfrogging the Bulldogs on the table who have a tricky game against the Sea Eagles, while recent history suggests another close clash between the Raiders and Knights.

The Warriors lost to the Titans 27-24 in their last meeting in Auckland. Photo / Photosport
The Warriors lost to the Titans 27-24 in their last meeting in Auckland. Photo / Photosport

Round 22: Dolphins

At home; Dolphins currently 7th

History is on the Warriors’ side with this clash as the Dolphins have never won in New Zealand, albeit they’ve only played here twice.

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In their last outing earlier this season, the Warriors had to survive a late Dolphins fightback to claim a 16-12 win in a physical contest.

The Dolphins will be feeling fresh coming off their final bye of the season and could be in the eight by the time this match kicks off, so they will be desperate to make a statement.

Our prediction: A Warriors win.

Elsewhere: For the Warriors, as all the other top four contenders will be facing teams outside of the eight, it is a must-win for them.

Marata Niukore scored a try the last time the Warriors played the Dolphins. Photo / Photosport
Marata Niukore scored a try the last time the Warriors played the Dolphins. Photo / Photosport

Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs

Away; Bulldogs currently 3rd

Easily the Warriors’ toughest test in the run home, facing the team with the best defence in the competition, although it’s been far from smooth sailing of late for the Bulldogs following the accusation of Lachlan Galvin.

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The Bulldogs won both meetings last season, although the epic 13-12 clash in Sydney was marred with controversy, and the Warriors lost all their outside backs to injury.

On top of that, this will be the fifth meeting between former Penrith assistants in Webster and Cameron Ciraldo, which is currently locked at 2-2 and as both teams could meet again in the finals, a win could give either side the psychological advantage.

While the Bulldogs are in the top four, they have navigated their way in with relative ease, and have a 2-3 record against top eight sides, and five of their last seven games do come against teams currently in the playoff spots.

Although the Warriors’ record isn’t much better at 3-5.

Our prediction: Home advantage sees the Bulldogs win a tight one.

Elsewhere: This round is crucial, with the Storm hosting the Broncos earlier in the round while the Raiders host the Sea Eagles.

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Leka Halasima made his Warriors NRL debut against the Bulldogs in Sydney in 2024. Photo / Photosport
Leka Halasima made his Warriors NRL debut against the Bulldogs in Sydney in 2024. Photo / Photosport

Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons

At home; Dragons currently 11th

A very rare trip to Auckland for the Dragons, who have visited just three times since 2016. Over the years, they have been a tricky team for the Warriors to navigate.

The Warriors have won three of their past four matches, including earlier this season when they claimed a rare 15-14 win in Kogarah.

The Dragons have been like the Warriors of 2024, unable to close out games, losing six by six points or less.

Our prediction: A Warriors win.

Elsewhere: Another big round for the other contenders with the Panthers hosting the Storm, Bulldogs away to the Roosters and Broncos in action against the Dolphins, while the Raiders have the bye.

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Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in action against the Dragons. Photo / Photosport
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in action against the Dragons. Photo / Photosport

Round 25: Gold Coast Titans

Away; Titans currently 17th

While it should feel like a home match being on the Gold Coast, it does have some dark memories of late including the 60-point thrashing last year and the 44-point hiding in 2021 when the Warriors had three players sin-binned for fighting, a low point during those treacherous Covid-19 years.

Remember the Titans...

Our prediction: A Warriors win.

Elsewhere: By this stage the top-eight picture should be clearer, but there are two juicy matches with the Panthers hosting the Raiders while the Storm clash with the Bulldogs in Melbourne.

The Warriors lost 66-6 the last time they played on the Gold Coast. Photo / Photosport
The Warriors lost 66-6 the last time they played on the Gold Coast. Photo / Photosport

Round 26: Parramatta Eels

At home; Eels currently 16th

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The Eels are another team struggling this season, currently second to last, but have beaten the Warriors in five of their past six meetings, including a 30-20 win in Auckland last season.

In better news for the Warriors, the Eels have been woeful in what is clearly a rebuilding season for first-year coach Jason Ryles, who has been tinkering with his side in recent weeks, including dropping departing Kiwis playmaker Dylan Brown.

Parramatta have just one win against a top eight side (Sea Eagles, in round 12), scoring more than 20 points just five times and currently just have one more win than the last-placed Titans.

Our prediction: A Warriors win.

Elsewhere: All the other contenders, with the exception of the Bulldogs facing the Panthers, have lower ranked opposition.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in action against the Parramatta Eels. Photo / Photosport
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in action against the Parramatta Eels. Photo / Photosport

Round 27 Manly Sea Eagles

Away; Sea Eagles currently 8th

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Depending on how results play out, this could be long-serving captain Daly Cherry-Evans’ last home match for Manly, even if they make the finals.

In their clash back in round two, the Warriors claimed a 36-16 win, although you have to go back to 2020 to when Webster’s men last beat Manly in their backyard.

If the Warriors head into the final round with a top four spot guaranteed, there is a chance Webster could opt to rest some of his key players, like we saw in 2023.

Our prediction: Considering the occasion, Sea Eagles win.

Elsewhere: The final round is full of blockbusters, with the Broncos hosting the Storm, Bulldogs against Sharks and Dolphins facing the Raiders.

Kurt Capewell tackles Sea Eagles forward Jake Trbojevic. Photo / Photosport
Kurt Capewell tackles Sea Eagles forward Jake Trbojevic. Photo / Photosport

Prediction: The Warriors will win five of their last seven, but still finish fourth.

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Predicted top eight: 1.) Raiders, 46 points; 2.) Storm, 42 points; 3.) Bulldogs, 40 points; 4.) Warriors, 40 points; 5.) Panthers, 37 points; 6.) Broncos, 36 points; 7.) Sharks, 36 points; 8.) Sea Eagles, 34 points

Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.

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