KEY POINTS:
It's impossible to look past Melbourne or Manly as the 2007 grand-final combatants.
Those two teams have stood out all season, stretching out an early lead on the NRL table and holding it.
They deserve favouritism for consistency but also for the balance they have developed in their squads during the past few seasons. Both have strike power in the crucial one, six, seven and nine jerseys and both have game-breakers in their three-quarters and at fullback.
Both have had finals heartbreak in recent seasons, the Storm collapsing in last year's title game to a more finals-experienced side in Brisbane. This year, they are the hardened finals veterans. It will be a major upset if they are denied the trophy.
The Storm have scored nearly 100 more than Manly, thanks largely to the 50-6 romp over the Titans last weekend. Prior to that they were winning, just.
But the measure of their strength came in mid-season when up to six players went to State of Origin teams yet they kept winning. The only teams to beat them all year are the Tigers (R8), Manly (R11) and the Roosters (R20), all those games in Sydney.
They have beaten six of the top-eight sides - Brisbane 28-18 and 16-14, Souths 26-10 and 12-8, the Bulldogs 38-6, the Eels 14-10, the Warriors 30-12 and 4-2, the Cowboys 58-12.
In Cameron Smith, they have the game's best halfback of 2007 and he has the team on a roll. The ball-playing ability of their backrowers is not as spectacular as the Warriors, Manly or the Bulldogs. But behind the pack is perhaps the best set of backs still running, given the Broncos' injuries.
Cronk, Greg Inglis, Matt King, Israel Folau, Billy Slater - all are capable of breaking a defensive line at speed and breaking a game wide open.
Manly's strength has been in it's pack, with the workaholics Glenn Stewart and Anthony Watmough providing damaging running to either break holes or attract defence that lets others break holes. Their hooker, Michael Monaghan, and half Matt Orford provide a lethal link between rampaging forwards and their mid-field and fullback Brett Stewart, whose blistering pace has him fifth on the try-scoring list.
The Storm and Eagles are the two sides that look best able to cope with the loss of players through injury of suspension.
The Broncos should be number three on the favouritism list and would be but for their woeful injury toll. No side could cop the losses they've been hit with and go on - skipper and game-runner Darren Lockyer, star fullback Karmichael Hunt, speed merchant Brent Tate, utility Shaun Berrigan - all test regulars - plus a host of back-up players. Even their coach, Wayne Bennett, could not expect them to push on. They are a dead-cert to be eliminated at Olympic Park at the weekend.
The Eels might have taken third on some bookies' lists but their recent record in playoff games has others holding their price out. Under former coach Brian Smith, they choked in 1998 letting a 18-2 lead slip to a 32-20 overtime loss to the Bulldogs, in 1999 they led the Storm 16-6 at halftime and couldn't score in the second half, losing 18-16. In 2001, they made the grand final but trailed Newcastle 24-0 after 32 minutes and lost 30-24.
In 2002, they were eliminated 24-14 by the Broncos and they missed the top eight in 2003-04. In 2005, after winning the minor premiership, they inexplicable slumped to a 24-0 loss to the Cowboys. Last year, they finished eighth and were eliminated 12-6 by the Storm in week one.
There is the suspicion they are fragile again, that they cannot go all the way. Undoubtedly their strength is the flamboyant backplay by Tim Smith, Jarryd Hayne, Krisnan Inu, Timana Tahu and Eric Groethe. But as the adage goes, you have to win up front to earn the right to go wide. The Eels have the power-props to do that. Behind them is the suspect area - the halves. It appears that when teams successfully pressure halfback Tim Smith and five-eighth Brett Finch they can be forced into bad options or error. When the Eels halves are short on time they play without confidence. They are not traffic-runners, relying on hookers PJ Marsh and Mark Riddell for that.
Other coaches will have this frailty tattooed in their game-plans. It's the reason the Eels shouldn't be able to go all the way.
The Cowboys have been labelled a two-man team - halfback Johnathan Thurston and fullback Matt Bowen - a title they bristle at. It's fair though, not from the point of view that two men can win games but it's certain they could not win finals games without either one. Thurston and Bowen are the explosive elements to the Cowboys' game.
They will suffer from lack of firepower up front given the loss of backrowers Steve Southern, Luke O'Donnell and Sione Faumuina. That makes Carl Webb an easy target.
The Cowboys have a formidable home record. But their defence home or away is poor, only four teams conceded more points during the season, they are the only side in the top eight with a negative differential and it's a big one, minus 71. Really, it's hard to see them going on even if they do beat the Bulldogs again tomorrow.
The Bulldogs have Mark O'Meley back but lose significant firepower themselves with the suspension of Sonny Bill Williams. He is the game's most prolific off-loader and the short hand-ons he produces often run on to tries. There is no under-estimating his loss - the Dogs won't scare other sides as much as they would have, their attack is blunted.
They do not have the halves to go on and take the title. Ben Roberts has a good long kicking game, is tough and can beat traffic. But too often he takes the wrong option, as in failing to pass for a certain try last weekend. Brett Sherwin is solid but lacks the X-factor of a Thurston, Matt Orford or Cooper Cronk.
Souths might have been a force in their first finals appearance since 1989 but the absence of Kiwis forwards David Kidwell, injured, and David Fa'alogo, suspended, robs them of significant impact from second-phase play.
They have a rookie teenage fullback who will attract a mountain of pressure.
They lack the superstar backlines of other finals candidates. Their halves are inexperienced. It all adds up to an early exit but good experience for 2008.
And so it is for the Warriors. It would have been mighty had they made it last season and played one or two finals games - the young up-and-comers of the likes of Evarn Tuimavave, Epalahame Lauaki, Sam Rapira, Grant Rovelli, Michael Witt, Simon Mannering would all now know what to expect and would have tasted the bitterness of an early exit because they were not last year in a position to push on.
Had they been good enough, they would have made the eight despite the four-point salary cap deduction.
This year shapes as that learning experience. Clearly, they have improved given their top-four spot. Tonight, they will hear the value of making top four and earning home ground advantage when a 29,000-strong crowd containing few Eels backers greets them.
But they are not in the league of Melbourne or Manly, whose coaches Craig Bellamy and Des Hasler have had five and four years respectively to assemble a squad and bring it up to speed while Ivan Cleary is in just his second at Auckland.
The Warriors have a huge future advantage in that all their squad is signed, most beyond 2009. Next season players including Lauaki, Mannering, Witt and Rovelli, Tuimavave, Jerome Ropati and others push on towards or past the 100-game mark, the line legendary coach Wayne Bennett cites as marking when a player becomes really useful.
Coach Cleary too will have learned from this experience. Clearly, he knows how to assemble a decent squad - those he's brought in have all been successes, Wade McKinnon, Rovelli and Witt, Michael Crockett. It's a fair bet that this time next year people will be singing the praises of talented young hooker Ian Henderson who replaces George Gatis, much as they lamented the departure of Brent Webb but now don't talk of him.
Cleary managed the difficult period of consecutive losses this season well, without being prompted to panicked decisions, and so "won the dressing room" and turned both individual's fortunes and those of the team.
There is a lot to look forward to in 2008, never mind what happens from here. If the Warriors do manage to go on and win finals games at Mt Smart, no team will look forward to playing there next season.
